VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX)

This is my last message for now. I have the worst record in stock investment in the world. I bought TVIX in Jan 2019 last year then sold it and lost 20% ($42,000) in just “7 days” and vowed to never buy TVIX again. This year I sold MSFT and MA, ROKU last Friday 2/28/2020 at more than 10% loss each and bought SDOW, SPXS, and TECS (thinking they are less volatile than TVIX), but this time it’s even worse, I lost 20% in just “1 day” today. Combined that’s a 30% loss of my entire saving in 2 days. That’s in addition to the $60,000 loss total in 2019. And that’s after the $6,000 I paid for Zacks subscription and hundreds of dollars for Motley Fool “professional help” in the last 4 years. And I have never made a dollar cumulatively in the last 22 years of investing. I need to put myself on time-out and think about what I did. I don’t know what to do anymore.
I could have been better off using all that money to buy stuff or take all my friends traveling. I sold my property a few years ago because I couldn’t live with the then new constant noise from above. Now I can’t afford to buy a house either, real estate here is expensive.
My savings went from 6 digits to low 5 digits, I am close to penniless, the Only thing I have is my health. I still go to the gym. Best of luck to you all whether you are going long or short. Please Don’t Be Like Me. And keep yourself safe from the virus. Thanks for tolerating my rant. I can only vent here because no one else would understand.

$SPXS, $SDOW, $TQQQ, $SQQQ, $TECS, $TVIX

Warren Buffett, known for being one of the world's most prescient investors, has kept quiet on whether U.S. equities are too expensive at a time when the global economy is slowing, Bloomberg reports. But he's reportedly hoarding a record $122 billion in cash at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., leading to some speculation that he sees a recession on the horizon, or at least is sending some sort of warning. The cash pile is more than half the value of Berkshire's $208 billion portfolio of public companies, and the only time that percentage has reportedly been higher since 1987 was in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Bloomberg also points out that Buffett's favorite gauge of the stock market, the market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, doesn't paint a pretty picture at the moment. The barometer, which measures the total value of the stock market as a percentage of GDP, was reportedly telling before the last two economic downturns. It shot up 146 percent at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and 137 percent just before the financial crisis in 2008. It reportedly hit 154 percent in 2017 and Bloomberg reports that it's almost certainly higher today since the U.S. stock market is up. If it wasn't clear already, the lower the ratio, the better.

One reason this market keeps going up is because there really is no alternative investment, with any sort of return, out there... nearly worldwide. Investors have only one haven, the US markets. It has to give in at one point. Higher market values causing increase PE multiples and lower earnings forecasts, all with a global slowing economy will eventually require a correction. Interest rate cuts will not change that, long term, for equities. The US markets are it for now, but at it's peak, it's hard to imagine profit taking isn't going to happen at one point. The old adage of "buy low, sell high" has to come into play soon.

There is short term pain here. TVIX could stay here or go a bit lower, but the upside reward is really tremendous. The 10 year and other treasury yields have spiked about 20% this week alone. Market experts warn that this is not sustainable with current economic conditions and headwinds. The consensus is 1.4 which means another 20% fall in the yield in near term.
Markets are way overbought. Any bad news or even remote bad news will take its toll wiping out 2% or more.
Hong Kong unrest hasn't stopped, Fed will upset the market. I dont expect Powell to guarantee more rate cuts. Like usual he will be in a wait and watch mode.
China trade resolution ..... Not happening.
What happens next? Market heads down, stays flat and starts to rise. Kinda like deja vu. Until someone flashes another recession sign and the house of cards crashes.
Have a good one.

Trying to help some people here and clear some noise. I and several people wondered why TVIX has gone down drastically these past 2 days.even though market is flat ..I'm guessing this is based on VXX and it's looking at futures. The futures are expecting good earning from banks since they just state how great their financials are in front of congress. So if that's true, positive earnings from banks will bring TVIX to 22 or even 21. I hate it but we'll see tomorrow. XLF remains strong today.. I really hope I'm wrong.. but it looks like this is what market expects.. Any input guys? Contango doesn't add up to the number btw. I still believe we are in bad/ fake economic state not BOoming at all. We can't claim economic boom with flat money velocity.. that just doesn't happen. Same thing we can't assume there's china trade deals without knowing the details..

How much more clear does it have to be. Good Forbes article below with the following quote, that shows this market will flop Monday morning

"But Xi has come to the G20 in an apparent belligerent mood as far as Trump is concerned. According to the Wall Street Journal, Xi is demanding that Trump end a ban on telecoms giant Huawei from buying US-made components before China is ready to agree to a trade deal.

Xi also was demanding as preconditions that the US lift punitive tariffs and end attempts to get China to buy even more US exports than Beijing said it would when the two leaders met in Buenos Aires last November.

Since Trump is not likely to back down on Huawei, which he has accused of working with the Chinese government to eavesdrop on American military and corporate communications, the prospects for a positive outcome of the talks seem fairly dim."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/charleswallace1/2019/06/28/china-sets-preconditions-for-a-us-trade-deal/#623ad58548be

Some notes from my post over at ProBoards - I've seen on VXX Daily charts 5 and 6 RED daily candles in a row
and 7 is rare and 7th candle was so small and not even worth it

Anyway, VXX has been RED for 5 daily candles, should get 6 today
and after today, have to be real careful IMO if short

Global slow down this rally will not last.
LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Factory activity shrank across much of Europe and Asia in June as the simmering U.S.-China trade conflict put further strains on the manufacturing sector, keeping policymakers under pressure to deploy stronger steps to avert a global recession.

A series of mainly downbeat business surveys and official indicators released on Monday followed Saturday's warning by Group of 20 leaders who met in Osaka, Japan, of slowing global growth and intensifying geopolitical and trade tensions. The data was collected before the weekend summit.

The United States and China agreed at the summit to restart trade talks after U.S. President Donald Trump offered concessions including no new tariffs and an easing of restrictions on tech company Huawei, providing some relief to businesses and financial markets.

But analysts doubt the truce will lead to a sustained easing of tensions while lingering uncertainty could dampen corporate spending appetite and global growth.

"It's too early to turn optimistic. The two countries just kicked the can down the road and there's no knowing what could happen next," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

"Global manufacturing activity hasn't hit bottom yet. U.S. business confidence, particularly that of manufacturers, has been weakening and if this continues, it may hurt economies across the world."

Factory activity in the euro zone shrank faster last month than previously thought, in a broad-based downturn, according to IHS Markit's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which also suggested there would be no quick turnaround. [EUR/PMIM]

Germany's export-dependent manufacturing sector contracted in June for the sixth time in a row, Italian activity declined for a ninth month and Spain's contracted at its fastest rate in more than six years.

France, the euro zone's second-biggest economy, bucked the trend and activity grew at its fastest pace in nine months.

But against a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty and global trade tensions, British manufacturers suffered the sharpest fall in activity in more than six years, its PMI showed, adding to signs of economic weakness there. [GB/PMIM]

"The global manufacturing sector has continued to deteriorate which will weigh on export orders," said Thomas Pugh at Capital Economics.

In China, Asia's economic engine, the Caixin/IHS Markit PMI came in at 49.4, falling short of market expectations and the worst reading since January.

It was the first time in four months the keenly-watched index has fallen below the neutral 50-mark dividing expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.

Japan also saw manufacturing activity contract in June to hit a three-month low, offering fresh evidence of an economy under the pump as global demand weakens.

Separately, a Bank of Japan (BOJ) survey showed big manufacturers' confidence hit a near three-year low, keeping its central bank under pressure to maintain or even ramp up a massive stimulus program.

In South Korea, factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in four months in June as the global trade slowdown deepened, prompting companies to cut production.

Activity fell in Malaysia and Taiwan, a sign the U.S.-China trade conflict's impact on the rest of Asia was broadening.

In India and Indonesia, where factories are less dependent on external demand for business, activity continued to grow albeit at a slower pace.

Vietnam's factory activity expanded at faster rate although new orders rose at their slowest since February. The Southeast Asian economy has been a rare beneficiary of the trade war as manufacturers shift their Chinese operations there to sidestep U.S. tariffs.

If you are playing the odds, there isn’t a much better game in town then TVIX. Even if we go the wrong way a little, you will only lose if you sell too quickly. New York (CNN Business)The leaders of Corporate America are cashing in their chips as doubts grow about the sustainability of the longest bull market in American history. Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.
August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.