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ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) Annual Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at €620 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €21b were in line with what the analysts predicted, ASML Holding surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €14.13 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding


Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ASML Holding's 33 analysts is for revenues of €26.0b in 2023, which would reflect a substantial 23% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to €18.51. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €25.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €18.33 in 2023. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of €719, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to ASML Holding's valuation in the near term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ASML Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €866 and the most bearish at €560 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting ASML Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ASML Holding is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €719, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ASML Holding analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at)

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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