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AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored
DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Fails to Push Above Former Support; H&S Pattern Takes Shape
- NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored as RBNZ Retains Verbal Intervention
- USDOLLAR Holds Previous Day’s Range Ahead of Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence
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AUD/USD
Fails to push above former support around 0.9200-10 despite the 121.0K rise in Australia Employment, with the jobless rate slipping to 6.1% from 6.3%.
Raises risk for head-and-shoulders reversal pattern as Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains bearish momentum; next downside objective comes in around 0.9080 (50.0% retracement) to 0.9070 (38.2% retracement).
The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has narrowed, but continues to favor a bearish outlook for AUD/USD retail crowd remains net-long, with the ratio currently standing at +1.80.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD looks poised to give back the rebound from February (0.8050) as it closes below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (82.10-20), while RSI pushes into oversold territory.
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) retaining the verbal intervention on the New Zealand dollar, will continue to use the downward trending channel for near-term guidance.
Next downside region to watch comes in around 0.8100 pivot to 0.8120 (61.8% retracement).
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Read More:
Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder
AUDUSD Scalps Target Head and Shoulders Break- Bearish Sub 9236
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 10854.94 | 10859.53 | 10828.98 | 0.07 | 77.00% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index holds previous day’s range; may see a more meaningful run at August 2013 high (10,897) as U.S. Retail Sales expected to rise 0.6% in August, U. of Michigan Confidence projected to increase to 83.3 in September from 82.5 the month prior.
Will continue to favor USDOLLAR strength as long as RSI preserves the bullish trendline, but failure to close above 10,869 (78.6% retracement) may highlight a near-term topping process.
Looks as though retail crowd will stay net-short USD ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision as the DailyFX SSI retains the recent trends.
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Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 6) | 12:30 | 300K | 315K |
Continuing Claims (AUG 30) | 12:30 | 2490K | 2487K |
Monthly Budget Statement (AUG) | 18:00 | -$132.5B |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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