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Bear Of The Day: Hilton Garden Vacations (HGV)

Hilton Grand Vacartions (HGV) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) as we head into a recession.  Who knew that security analysts could have that much foresight!  I am kidding of course, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that almost any consumer non-discretionary stock is having issues of late. This article will look at why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in this Bear of the Day article.


Hilton Grand Vacations Company, LLC, a division of Hilton Worldwide, is engaged in hospitality business. It markets and operates vacation ownership resorts. The company also manages and serves club membership programs which include Hilton Grand Vacations Club(R) and The Hilton Club(R). It operates primarily in USA, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Portugal, Scotland and Thailand. Hilton Grand Vacations Company, LLC is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

In the case of HGV, I see one beat of the  Zacks Consensus Estimate and three misses.  This alone does not make the stock a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and it doesn’t make it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) either.

The Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.

Earnings Estimates

The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower.  For HGV see annual estimates moving lower.

The current fiscal year  consensus number moved from $3.17  to -$2.59 over the last 60 days.

The next year has moved from $4.18 to $3.70.

Negative movement in earnings estimates like that is why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

It should be noted that a majority of stocks in the Zacks universe are seeing negative earnings estimate revisions.  That means that the stocks that are seeing small but negative earnings estimate revisions are falling to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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