Bear of the Day: Tupperware Brands Corporation (TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation (TUP), a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) is the leading global marketer of innovative, premium products across multiple brands utilizing a social selling method through an independent sales. Product brands and categories include design-centric preparation, storage and serving solutions for the kitchen and home through the Tupperware brand and beauty and personal care products through the Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller Cosmetics, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, and Nuvo brands.

Recent Earnings Report

In the company’s most recent earnings release they beat the Zacks consensus earnings estimate but came in short of the revenue estimate.  On a year over year basis, the company posted earnings growth of +9.7% while revenues fell by -2%.  On a regional segment sales basis the company reported declines in Europe -3%, Asia Pacific -2%, North America -7%, but South America grew by +6%

Management’s Take

According to Rick Goings, Chairman and CEO, "Our local currency sales came in 1-point under our October guidance range. Overall, our top-line did accelerate on a sequential basis after adjusting for calendar shifts, in connection with having an additional week in the fourth quarter of 2016, and the closure of Beauticontrol. China's significant growth trajectory continued, while Brazil and Tupperware Mexico grew nicely, demonstrating resilience in the face of tough externals coming out of the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted earnings per share was 6-cents above the high-end of our range in local currency after a 1-cent drag from foreign exchange rates versus October guidance."

Mr. Goings continued, "Our re-engineering program to revitalize operations and improve the cost structure, primarily in Europe, continues to progress. Globally, we continue efforts to evolve our relationship-selling business model to include greater access to our powerful brands and innovative products through the use of digital tools, branded contact points and a relevant earning opportunity for our growing sales force of 3.2 million.”

Management Lowers Q1 18 Guidance

A few months after the decent Q4 17 earnings report (in the early part of April), management preannounced Q1 18 results (the company is expected to release Q1 earnings before the opening bell on April 25th) as they lowered both sales and EPS guidance due to macro and micro challenges.  Further, management stated that organic sales would be down -6%, double of the previous expectation.  The company cited its France facility shutdown for customer service issues, the underperformance of its recent initiatives in Indonesia, and a customs strike in Brazil as factors in the lower than expected results for Q1.  Unfortunately, these issues are not expected to be fixed in the near term as analysts are seeing these problems lingering for the next few quarters.  

Price and Earnings Consensus Graph

As you can see in the graph below, the stock price and future earnings estimates have been trending downwards for quite some time.

Tupperware Brands Corporation Price and Consensus

Tupperware Brands Corporation Price and Consensus | Tupperware Brands Corporation Quote

Declining Earnings Estimates

Over the past 30 days, earnings estimates for Q1 18, Q2 18, FY 18 and FY 19 have all been negatively revised; Q1 18 fell from $1.06 to $0.88, Q2 18 dropped from $1.28 to $1.13, FY 18 was cut from $5.16 to $4.62, and FY 19 declined from $5.51 to $4.87.

Bottom Line

While management is attempting to right its course in several key country segments, new headwinds are dampening their previous expectations.  Further, it seems that it will take a bit longer than expected for TUP’s new initiatives to get some traction.  

If you are inclined to invest in the Consumer Products/Staples segment you would be best served by looking into Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF) who currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and or WD-40 Company (WDFC), who currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating.

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