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Brexit and the Pound in the Spotlight – Parliament Could Vote for a No-Deal

Bob Mason
Updated
It’s all eyes on Parliament today. Could members of Parliament actually vote in favor of a no-deal Brexit?

Earlier in the Day:

Stats released through the Asian session was on the lighter side this morning. Economic data was limited to March consumer sentiment figures out of Australia.

While the economic calendar was on the lighter side, the main event of the day was Parliament’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

For the Aussie Dollar,

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 4.8% to 98.8 in March. The slide reversed February’s 4.3% rise to 103.8.

  • There was plenty of red across the major sub-indexes for the month and when compared to March 2018.

  • The Economic Conditions next 12-months sub-index slid by 6.9% in March to take it into negative territory year-on-year.

  • Close behind, the family finances next 12-months sub-index fell by 5.9%. Family finances vs a year ago also saw a heavy slide, down by 5.6%.

  • With sentiment towards the next 12-months downbeat, the economic conditions next 5-years sub-index slid by 5.5%.

  • On the positive side, the time to buy a new dwelling sub-index rose by 3.5%. The upside came in spite of the house price expectations sub-index falling by 2.7%.

  • While 4th quarter GDP numbers and concerns over the economic outlook weighed on the sub-indexes, a marked increase in the Unemployment Expectations Index will be a concern for the RBA. The index increased by 8.9 in March

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The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70714 to $0.70561 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar stood at $0.7055, a loss of 0.38% for the session.

Elsewhere,

The Japanese Yen was up by 0.10% to ¥111.25, support coming off the back of pullback in risk appetite through the early part of the day. The negative sentiment weighed on the Kiwi Dollar, which was down 0.29% to $0.6841 at the time of writing.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

January industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone that will provide the EUR with direction early on. Finalized February inflation numbers out of Spain will unlikely have an influence on the day.

Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will likely remain the key driver through the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR down 0.04% at $1.1283.

For the Pound

It was yet another dark day for Theresa May and British politics on Tuesday. Parliament shot down Theresa May’s last-ditch effort to deliver a soft exit. In spite of the EU Referendum result and the intent of the British population to leave the EU, politicians seemingly have an altogether different agenda.

The question that remains is whether the very same members of parliament will plunge Britain into the abyss later today. A free vote is to take place later to decide on whether Britain will leave the EU without a deal. The vote comes ahead of an anticipated Thursday vote on whether to extend the 29th March deadline. If today’s vote goes against, there will be no vote on Thursday and the Pound will pay the price.

On the economic calendar, the Annual Budget release and Spring Forecast Statement are expected though, with Brexit in a state of flux, even the Budget may fall on deaf ears.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3083.

Across the Pond

It’s back to the manufacturing sector. January durable goods orders and February wholesale inflation figures are due out later today. Forecasts are Dollar negative.

Following a string of weak economic indicators, today’s figures could have a material impact on the Dollar.

Outside of the stats, geopolitical risk will be a factor to consider through the day. British Parliament will be voting on whether to leave the EU without a deal. If previous votes are anything to go by, there’s just cause to expect a pickup in demand for U.S Treasuries through the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.06% to 96.997.

For the Loonie

There are no material stats scheduled for release, leaving the Loonie in the hands of crude oil and market risk sentiment.

Negative sentiment in the early part of the day weighed on the Loonie in spite of a pickup in crude oil prices. While there are no material stats, today’s EIA crude oil inventory numbers could provide some direction later in the day.

The Loonie was down 0.10% at C$1.33367, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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