Yahoo Finance Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for China Mengniu Dairy by following the link below.
Check out our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy
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The method
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥3.83k | CN¥4.29k | CN¥5.88k | CN¥6.36k | CN¥6.87k |
Source | Analyst x12 | Analyst x11 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 |
Present Value Discounted @ 9.8% | CN¥3.49k | CN¥3.56k | CN¥4.44k | CN¥4.38k | CN¥4.31k |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CN¥20b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥6.9b × (1 + 2%) ÷ (9.8% – 2%) = CN¥90b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = CN¥90b ÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)5 = CN¥56b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is CN¥76b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of HK$22.62. Compared to the current share price of HK$25.2, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at China Mengniu Dairy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.975. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For 2319, I’ve compiled three pertinent aspects you should further research:
Financial Health: Does 2319 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does 2319’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 2319? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every HK stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
