New Zealand markets closed
  • NZX 50

    11,753.48
    +50.67 (+0.43%)
     
  • NZD/USD

    0.6280
    -0.0008 (-0.12%)
     
  • NZD/EUR

    0.6156
    -0.0007 (-0.11%)
     
  • ALL ORDS

    7,267.80
    +8.30 (+0.11%)
     
  • ASX 200

    7,020.30
    -0.30 (-0.00%)
     
  • OIL

    90.68
    -0.08 (-0.09%)
     
  • GOLD

    1,801.70
    -3.50 (-0.19%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    13,159.16
    -48.53 (-0.37%)
     
  • FTSE

    7,482.37
    +42.63 (+0.57%)
     
  • Dow Jones

    32,832.54
    +29.07 (+0.09%)
     
  • DAX

    13,687.69
    +113.76 (+0.84%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    20,105.38
    +59.61 (+0.30%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    27,985.93
    -263.31 (-0.93%)
     
  • NZD/JPY

    84.7130
    -0.1210 (-0.14%)
     

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CIVI)

·5-min read

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CIVI) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Civitas Resources

Step by step through the calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$1.70b

US$1.49b

US$204.0m

US$158.1m

US$134.1m

US$120.6m

US$112.9m

US$108.4m

US$106.1m

US$105.1m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ -22.51%

Est @ -15.17%

Est @ -10.04%

Est @ -6.45%

Est @ -3.93%

Est @ -2.17%

Est @ -0.94%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3%

US$1.6k

US$1.3k

US$165

US$119

US$94.4

US$79.2

US$69.1

US$61.9

US$56.4

US$52.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.6b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$105m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.3%– 1.9%) = US$2.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$997m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$4.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$53.0, the company appears about fair value at a 1.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Civitas Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.256. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Civitas Resources, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Civitas Resources (1 is significant!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.

  2. Future Earnings: How does CIVI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting