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Are Costa Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:CGC) Mixed Financials Driving The Negative Sentiment?

·4-min read

With its stock down 6.7% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC). We, however decided to study the company's financials to determine if they have got anything to do with the price decline. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Costa Group Holdings' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Costa Group Holdings

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Costa Group Holdings is:

9.9% = AU$64m ÷ AU$651m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.10.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Costa Group Holdings' Earnings Growth And 9.9% ROE

At first glance, Costa Group Holdings' ROE doesn't look very promising. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 5.7% doesn't go unnoticed by us. But then again, seeing that Costa Group Holdings' net income shrunk at a rate of 15% in the past five years, makes us think again. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.

That being said, we compared Costa Group Holdings' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 3.2% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Costa Group Holdings''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Costa Group Holdings Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 60% (implying that 40% of the profits are retained), most of Costa Group Holdings' profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Costa Group Holdings visit our risks dashboard for free.

Moreover, Costa Group Holdings has been paying dividends for six years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 57% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Costa Group Holdings' future ROE will rise to 13% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Costa Group Holdings' performance. On the one hand, the company does have a decent rate of return, however, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing and as discussed earlier, the low retained earnings is hampering the growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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