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Debt-Ceiling Stress Begins to Weigh on Markets

Markets were flat-to-up for most of the morning, led by the small-cap Russell 2000, which is still making up ground relative to the other major market indices. And then: debt ceiling talks on Capitol Hill once again wrapped without an agreement. The slide downward began in earnest then: the Dow closed -231 points, -0.69%, the S&P 500 was -1.12%, the Nasdaq slipped -160 points, -1.26%, and the Russell -0.35% for the day.

We’re creeping closer the the debt-ceiling deadline, which everyone with a basic working knowledge of the U.S. economy understands that the U.S. defaulting on its debts would have catastrophic circumstances. Yet the brinksmanship continues; Treasury Secretary (and former Fed Chair) Janet Yellen said we’ve until about a week from tomorrow before the problems begin in earnest. Today’s market activity suggests this event is definitely on the market’s radar by now.

It’s a busy afternoon for earnings results, as well. Legacy cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks PANW beats expectations on top and bottom lines: earnings of $1.10 per share was nicely ahead of the 92 cents in the Zacks consensus, and revenues of $1.72 billion sneaked across the finish line narrowly ahead of the $1.71 billion expected. In-line revenue guidance on increased earnings for the current quarter. Shares are up nearly +4% on the news; the stock is already up +37% year to date.

Intuit INTU shares were flat in late trading immediately after fiscal Q3 results were posted: earnings of $8.92 per share was ahead of the $8.45 in the Zacks consensus, though quarterly sales were light of expectations: $6.02 billion versus $6.09 billion expected. Earnings guidance was decent for the current quarter, and up for the full year on both earnings and revenues. It’s the company’s fifth straight earnings beat.

Urban Outfitters URBN clobbered earnings expectations this afternoon, reporting 56 cents per share which topped the Zacks consensus by 20 cents. Revenues beat by a much narrower margin: $1.1 billion versus $1.09 billion expected. Urban Outfitters brand was down -13%, leveled out by Anthropologie’s +13% in the quarter. Clothing rental program Nuuly grew its business +118% in the quarter.

Brand-name owner V.F. Corp. VFC brought in earnings of 17 cents per share versus expectations of 13 cents, on $2.74 billion in quarterly sales which exactly matched consensus. Guidance is overall flat to somewhat higher for the full fiscal year. North Face brand rose +12% in the quarter, while Vans fell -14%. The Americas were down -7% while sales increased overseas.

Luxury new homebuilder Toll Brothers TOL are seeing shares up +3% on very strong results this afternoon: earnings of $2.85 per share on revenues of $2.49 billion swept well past the $1.89 per share and $2.07 billion anticipated. The company said it feels housing demand is improving, and TOL shares would bear this out: +27% year to date.

Tomorrow afternoon we’ll get the minutes released from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will help analysts parse information about particular leanings Fed members have for interest rate levels going forward. Markets had been trading under the general belief that the Fed was done with raising rates for now; but are they really?

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