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E-mini NASDAQ Trying to Hold 13984.25 to 14515.75 Support

·3-min read

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the release of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and interest rate decisions at 19:00 GMT. Helping to boost the technology weighted index are shares of Microsoft and Tesla.

Microsoft Corp gained 4.3% after estimating current-quarter revenue broadly ahead of market estimates, driven in part by its cloud business. Tesla Inc added 3.5% ahead of its quarterly results after market close.

At 18:55 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14506.50, up 365.75 or +2.59%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at 353.48, up 8.37 or +2.42%.

The Fed is expected to signal the start of an interest rate hike cycle beginning in March. The announcement will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, which will be parsed for clues on the magnitude and pace of hikes for the year and strategy for shrinking the central bank’s roughly $9 trillion balance sheet.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has shifted to the upside following the confirmation of Monday’s closing price reversal top earlier today.

A trade through 13706.00 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 16009.25.

The market is currently trading on the strong side of a key retracement zone at 14515.75 to 13984.25, making it support.

The first minor range is 16009.25 to 13706.00. Its retracement zone at 14857.75 to 15120.50 is the first upside target area.

The second minor range is 16659.50 to 13706.00. Its retracement zone at 15182.75 to 15531.25 is the second target zone.

The combination of the two retracement zones makes 15120.50 to 15182.75 an important resistance cluster.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14515.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14515.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 14857.75.

Taking out 14857.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the rally into the resistance cluster at 15182.75 to 15531.25. Overtaking this area will likely lead to a test of 15531.25.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could re-emerge between 14857.75 and 15531.25. The resistance range is wide because of the heightened volatility the past three weeks.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14515.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 14172.75.

If 14172.75 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 13984.25, followed by 13706.00. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the May 12, 2021 bottom at 12968.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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