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Earnings Miss: Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

As you might know, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PROV) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$9.4m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 15%, coming in at just US$0.22 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Provident Financial Holdings

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Following last week's earnings report, Provident Financial Holdings' twin analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$40.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 27% to US$1.32. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$42.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.42 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

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It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.7% to US$14.00.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Provident Financial Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 4.2% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Provident Financial Holdings is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Provident Financial Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Provident Financial Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.