Advertisement
New Zealand markets closed
  • NZX 50

    12,134.97
    +76.68 (+0.64%)
     
  • NZD/USD

    0.6121
    +0.0024 (+0.39%)
     
  • NZD/EUR

    0.5605
    -0.0000 (-0.01%)
     
  • ALL ORDS

    8,206.10
    +72.70 (+0.89%)
     
  • ASX 200

    7,959.30
    +69.70 (+0.88%)
     
  • OIL

    82.18
    -0.44 (-0.53%)
     
  • GOLD

    2,416.00
    -5.90 (-0.24%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    20,331.49
    +120.13 (+0.59%)
     
  • FTSE

    8,252.91
    +29.57 (+0.36%)
     
  • Dow Jones

    40,000.90
    +247.15 (+0.62%)
     
  • DAX

    18,748.18
    +213.62 (+1.15%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    18,293.38
    +461.05 (+2.59%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    41,190.68
    -1,033.34 (-2.45%)
     
  • NZD/JPY

    96.6070
    -0.2380 (-0.25%)
     

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE:EW) Shares Could Be 35% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE:EW) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

ADVERTISEMENT

Check out our latest analysis for Edwards Lifesciences

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$1.26b

US$1.48b

US$1.69b

US$1.79b

US$1.98b

US$2.12b

US$2.23b

US$2.33b

US$2.42b

US$2.50b

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x7

Analyst x6

Analyst x5

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Est @ 7.01%

Est @ 5.54%

Est @ 4.51%

Est @ 3.79%

Est @ 3.29%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%

US$1.2k

US$1.3k

US$1.4k

US$1.3k

US$1.4k

US$1.4k

US$1.4k

US$1.3k

US$1.3k

US$1.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.5b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.1%) = US$48b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$48b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= US$24b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$37b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$81.7, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Edwards Lifesciences as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.892. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Edwards Lifesciences

Strength

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.

Opportunity

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Edwards Lifesciences, there are three pertinent items you should further examine:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Edwards Lifesciences that you need to consider before investing here.

  2. Future Earnings: How does EW's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here