Yahoo Finance EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 16, 2019
The Euro is trading sharply lower on Tuesday ahead of the release of several U.S. economic reports including data on retail sales. The single-currency is being pressured by a report showing signs of deteriorating sentiment among German investors.
The ZEW economic sentiment survey in Germany deteriorated more sharply than expected in July, with the ZEW institute pointing to the unresolved trade dispute between China and the United Sates as well as political tensions with Iran.
At 12:20 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1219, down 0.0039 or -0.35%.
The focus today is likely to be on U.S. economic reports and speeches from two Fed officials. With the chances of a 25-basis point rate cut at 100%, traders will be looking to see if the economic data or the Fed speakers signal the need for a more aggressive 50-basis point rate cut.
The major reports today are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Core Retail Sales are expected to come in at 0.1%, down from the previously reported 0.5%. Retail Sales are said to have increased 0.1%, also down from 0.5%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1193 will change the main trend to down. This should lead to a test of the next main bottom at 1.1181. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into a pair of bottoms at 1.1116 and 1.1107.
A trade through 1.1286 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The minor trend is down. This is driving momentum lower. A trade through 1.1284 will change the minor trend to up.
The short-term range is 1.1193 to 1.1286. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1240 is controlling the direction of the EUR/USD today.
On the downside, the support is the longer-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185. On the upside, the target resistance zone is 1.1278 to 1.1318.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and current price at 1.1219, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1240.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.1240 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1218. If this fails to attract buyers then look for the selling to possibly extend into the longer-term uptrending Gann angle at 1.1203. This is the last support angle before the 1.1193 main bottom, the major Fibonacci level at 1.1185 and the main bottom at 1.1181.
The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 1.1181. Taking out this bottom could drive the EUR/USD into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1155, followed by a pair of main bottoms at 1.1116 and 1.1107.
Bullish Scenario
Overtaking 1.1240 will signal the return of buyers. Taking out 1.1243 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target angle 1.1263.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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