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Will ExxonMobil's (XOM) Upstream Business Aid Q4 Earnings?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is geared up to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 1, before the opening bell. Since the integrated energy player has significant exposure to the upstream business, a considerable improvement in oil price is likely to have aided the quarterly performance.

Upstream Business

ExxonMobil’s upstream businesses fall under core operations. This segment covers the company’s activities related to exploring and developing oil and natural gas resources. From upstream operations within and outside the United States, the energy giant reported earnings of roughly $9.7 billion for the first nine months of 2021.

Upstream Q3 Performance

Non-U.S. Operation: For third-quarter 2021, ExxonMobil reported an earnings of $3.1 billion from upstream activities outside the United States. This marked an improvement from the year-earlier profit of $298 million owing to higher prices.

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U.S Operation: From domestic operations, ExxonMobil reported a profit of $869 million turning around from the year-ago quarter’s loss of $681 million. Increased prices and volumes aided domestic operations.

Q4 Oil Price

The pricing scenario of oil in fourth-quarter 2021 improved drastically from the prior-year comparable period, thanks to the rolling out of coronavirus vaccines. The pricing environment of natural gas also improved drastically in the December quarter from the year-ago comparable period. Thus, the rise in oil and natural gas prices is likely to have aided the integrated energy firm’s upstream business.

Forecast for Q4 Oil & Gas Production

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter production is pegged at 3,734 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoE/D), suggesting an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s 3,689 MBoE/D.

Production of Crude & Natural Gas Liquids: The consensus estimate for worldwide net crude oil and liquids production is pegged at 2,328 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D), indicating an improvement from 2,325 MBbl/D in the year-ago quarter.

Natural Gas Production: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for worldwide natural gas production available for sale is pegged at 8,432 million cubic feet per day (Mcf/d), implying an improvement from 8,185 Mcf/d in fourth-quarter 2020.

Upstream Profit to Improve in Q4

Prices and production of commodities are the two key parameters that determine the fate of upstream operations. With oil equivalent production likely to have surged, the significant improvement in oil price is expected to have acted as a catalyst. Thus, the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) ExxonMobil’s earnings from the upstream businesses are likely to have improved.

Non-U.S. Operation: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings after taxes from non-U.S. upstream operations is $4,251 million, suggesting a turnaround from $1,729 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

U.S. Operation: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for after-tax earnings from upstream operations in the domestic region is pegged at $1,524 million, indicating a turnaround from a loss of $16,803 million in the year-ago quarter.

Earnings & Revenue Projections

The solid upstream business is likely to have aided ExxonMobil’s earnings in the December quarter of 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $1.9 per share suggests a massive improvement year over year. The same for sales of $82.9 billion indicates a 78.1% year-over-year increase owing to higher production.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Upcoming Releases of Other Energy Players

Other big energy giants with significant upstream exposure that are gearing up to release quarterly results are ConocoPhillips COP, BP plc BP and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

ConocoPhillips has an Earnings ESP of +2.54% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ConocoPhillips is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s earnings is pegged at $2.14 per share, suggesting a massive year-over-year improvement.

BP has an Earnings ESP of -1.65% and a Zacks Rank of 1.

BP is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s earnings is pegged at $1.22 per share, suggesting a significant year-over-year improvement.

Royal Dutch Shell has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shell is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shell’s earnings is pegged at $1.40 per share, suggesting a massive year-over-year improvement.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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