Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL) Shares Could Be 48% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Foot Locker is US$81.93 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Foot Locker is estimated to be 48% undervalued based on current share price of US$42.70

• Analyst price target for FL is US$43.53 which is 47% below our fair value estimate

Does the March share price for Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Foot Locker

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	-US$79.5m	US$545.0m	US$296.7m	US$657.0m	US$712.5m	US$759.0m	US$798.4m	US$832.4m	US$862.4m	US$889.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Est @ 8.44%	Est @ 6.53%	Est @ 5.19%	Est @ 4.26%	Est @ 3.60%	Est @ 3.14%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10%	-US$72.2	US$449	US$222	US$446	US$439	US$424	US$405	US$383	US$361	US$338

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.4b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$889m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (10%– 2.1%) = US$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 10%)¹⁰= US$4.3b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$7.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$42.7, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Foot Locker as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.364. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Foot Locker

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Foot Locker, we've put together three further elements you should explore:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Foot Locker (1 is concerning!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.

2. Future Earnings: How does FL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here