Yahoo Finance An Intrinsic Calculation For Gentrack Group Limited (NZSE:GTK) Shows It’s 22.51% Undervalued
I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Gentrack Group Limited (NZSE:GTK) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in June 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below. View out our latest analysis for Gentrack Group
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow estimate
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Levered FCF (NZ$, Millions) | NZ$19.00 | NZ$25.00 | NZ$29.00 | NZ$33.93 | NZ$39.36 |
Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Extrapolated @ (17%, capped from 20.4%) | Extrapolated @ (16%, capped from 20.4%) |
Present Value Discounted @ 9.01% | NZ$17.43 | NZ$21.04 | NZ$22.39 | NZ$24.03 | NZ$25.57 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NZ$110.46m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (5%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NZ$39.36m × (1 + 5%) ÷ (9% – 5%) = NZ$1.04b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = NZ$1.04b ÷ ( 1 + 9%)5 = NZ$676.91m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is NZ$787.37m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of NZ$9.41. Compared to the current share price of NZ$7.29, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 22.51% discount to what it is available for right now.
The assumptions
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Gentrack Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For GTK, there are three important aspects you should look at:
Financial Health: Does GTK have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does GTK’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of GTK? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NZSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
