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Investors Who Bought Australian Vintage (ASX:AVG) Shares Five Years Ago Are Now Up 26%

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Australian Vintage Ltd (ASX:AVG) share price is up 26% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 5.2%.

View our latest analysis for Australian Vintage

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

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During the last half decade, Australian Vintage became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so we would expect to see an increasing share price.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:AVG Past and Future Earnings, January 16th 2020
ASX:AVG Past and Future Earnings, January 16th 2020

We know that Australian Vintage has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Australian Vintage's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Australian Vintage, it has a TSR of 41% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Australian Vintage shareholders are up 9.3% for the year (even including dividends) . But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 7.2% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Australian Vintage that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.