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Investors Who Bought Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Shares Three Years Ago Are Now Up 93%

Simply Wall St

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) shareholders have seen the share price rise 93% over three years, well in excess of the market return (42%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 55% in the last year , including dividends .

View our latest analysis for Meridian Energy

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Meridian Energy was able to grow its EPS at 22% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 25% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NZSE:MEL Past and Future Earnings, January 1st 2020

We know that Meridian Energy has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Meridian Energy, it has a TSR of 129% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Meridian Energy rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 55% over the last year. And yes, that does include the dividend. That gain actually surpasses the 32% TSR it generated (per year) over three years. The improving returns to shareholders suggests the stock is becoming more popular with time. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Meridian Energy's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.