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Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?

Zacks Equity Research
·4-min read

Have you been paying attention to shares of Marathon Oil (MRO)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 17.6% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $29.24 in the previous session. Marathon Oil has gained 76.7% since the start of the year compared to the 36.2% move for the Zacks Oils-Energy sector and the 65.8% return for the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 4, 2022, Marathon Oil reported EPS of $1.02 versus consensus estimate of $0.98 while it missed the consensus revenue estimate by 3.06%.

For the current fiscal year, Marathon Oil is expected to post earnings of $4.94 per share on $8 billion in revenues. This represents a 214.65% change in EPS on a 46.29% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $4.46 per share on $7.46 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -9.69% and -6.73%, respectively.

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Valuation Metrics

Marathon Oil may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Marathon Oil has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and C, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 5.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 12.9X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 6.8X versus its peer group's average of 9.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.41. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Marathon Oil currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Marathon Oil fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Marathon Oil shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

How Does MRO Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of MRO have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is ConocoPhillips (COP). COP has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of C.

Earnings were strong last quarter. ConocoPhillips beat our consensus estimate by 0.93%, and for the current fiscal year, COP is expected to post earnings of $14.79 per share on revenue of $70.21 billion.

Shares of ConocoPhillips have gained 19.5% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 7.52X and a P/CF of 9.49X.

The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is in the top 11% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for MRO and COP, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.


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