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Mirati (MRTX) Down 16.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mirati (MRTX). Shares have lost about 16.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mirati due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Q4 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Sales Miss

Mirati reported a loss of $3.51 per share for fourth-quarter 2022, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.74 as well as the year-ago quarter’s loss of $3.72 per share.

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Mirati reported $0.9 million in revenues for the fourth quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.76 million. Mirati had recorded revenues of $0.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

Quarter in Detail

Fourth-quarter revenues included $0.7 million as product revenues from Krazati/adagrasib, Mirati’s newly approved cancer drug. Most of the product sales from Krazati were associated with inventory in the channel. No product revenues were recorded in the year-ago quarter.

License and collaboration revenues were $0.2 million in the quarter compared with $0.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

Research and development expenses declined 8.2% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $141.2 million due to higher manufacturing costs incurred in the year-ago quarter, following the FDA filing for Krazati in 2021.

Selling, general and administrative expenses surged 62.8% from the year-ago quarter’s level to $70.8 million due to an increase in commercial readiness costs as the company prepared for the launch of Krazati and higher headcount-related costs.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments as of Dec 31, 2022 were $1.1 billion, compared with $1.2 billion at the end of Sep 30, 2022.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Mirati has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Mirati has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Mirati is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Moderna (MRNA), a stock from the same industry, has gained 9.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2022 more than a month ago.

Moderna reported revenues of $5.08 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -29.5%. EPS of $3.61 for the same period compares with $11.29 a year ago.

Moderna is expected to post a loss of $1.73 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -120.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -22%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Moderna. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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