Yahoo Finance Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Moderna's 23 analysts is for revenues of US$3.3b in 2024, which would reflect a painful 35% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 41% to US$9.03 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.2b and losses of US$6.99 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Moderna
The consensus price target fell 10% to US$131, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 58% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 32% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Moderna is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Moderna's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Moderna analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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