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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Up 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Shares have added about 3.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Norwegian Cruise Line due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Norwegian Cruise Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Rise Y/Y

Norwegian Cruise reported first-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis. The upside was primarily driven by strong consumer demand, solid booking environment and robust onboard revenue generation.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

Norwegian Cruise reported an adjusted loss per share of 30 cents, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 43 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share of $1.82.

Quarterly revenues of $1,821.9 million beat the consensus mark of $1,759 million. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported revenues of $521.9 million. The upside can be attributed to the resumption of cruise operations.

In the quarter under review, passenger ticket revenues were $1,208.8 million compared with $342.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Onboard and other revenues increased to $613.1 million from $179.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Expenses & Operating Results

Total cruise operating expenses increased 74.1% in the quarter under review from the year-ago quarter’s levels. The company’s expenses in the quarter primarily stemmed from the resumption of cruise voyages and inflationary pressures. The company reported a rise in payroll, fuel and direct variable costs of fully-operating ships.

During the first quarter, gross cruise costs dropped 0.7% (from 2019 levels) to $1,616.4 million. Adjusted net cruise costs (excluding fuel) amounted to $863.4 million compared with $871.7 million in the first quarter of 2019. Fuel price per metric ton (net of hedges) increased to $779 from $724 in 2022.

Net interest expenses in the quarter were $171.3 million compared with $327.7 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

Cash and cash equivalents as of Mar 31, 2023, were $701 million compared with $947 million at the end of Dec 31, 2022. Long-term debt, as of Mar 31, 2023, came in at $11.9 billion compared with $12.6 billion as of Dec 31, 2022.

Booking Update

During the first quarter, the company reported solid booking volumes courtesy of strong demand in the WAVE season. The company stated that the cumulative booked position for 2023 are higher than 2019 levels. Also, it reported strength in advance ticket sales. As of Mar 31, 2023, the company’s advance ticket sales balance came in at $3.4 billion, up 26% (from the previous quarter’s levels) and 60% (from 2019 levels). The company stated pricing levels to be elevated.

2023 Guidance

For the second quarter of 2023, the company anticipates occupancy to be approximately 105% and Capacity Days to be approximately 5.5 million. During the quarter, adjusted interest expense is expected at approximately $175 million, while depreciation and amortization is anticipated at approximately $200 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected at nearly $485 million. For the second quarter, adjusted EPS is projected to be nearly 25 cents.

For 2023, the company anticipates occupancy to be approximately 103.5% and Capacity Days to be approximately 22.8 million. During the year, adjusted interest expenses are expected at approximately $715 million, while depreciation and amortization are anticipated at nearly $815 million. Adjusted EBITDA during the year is expected in the range of $1.8-1.95 billion. For 2023, adjusted EPS is projected to be nearly 75 cents compared with the prior projection of 70 cents.

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How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -8.03% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Norwegian Cruise Line has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Norwegian Cruise Line has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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