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Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Stock?

Zacks Equity Research
Updated
Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) could be a stock to avoid from a technical perspective, as the firm is seeing unfavorable trends on the moving average crossover front

Investors in Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the March 9, 2018 $60 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.

What is Implied Volatility?

Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

What do the Analysts Think?

Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Activision Blizzard shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Activision Blizzard is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Toys - Games - Hobbies industry that ranks in the Bottom 44% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, one analyst has increased its earnings estimates for the current quarter, while six analysts have dropped their estimates. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from 42 cents per share to 37 cents in that period.

Given the way analysts feel about Activision Blizzard right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Often times, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.

Looking to Trade Options?

Each week, our very own Dave Bartosiak gives his top options trades. Check out his recent live analysis and options trade for the NFLX earnings report completely free. See it here: Bartosiak: Trading Netflix's (NFLX) Earnings with Options or check out the embedded video below for more details:


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Zacks Investment Research