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Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Finisar (FNSR) Stock?

Zacks Equity Research
Updated
Northern Trust (NTRS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

Investors in Finisar Corporation FNSR need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Apr 20, 2018 $25.00 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.

What is Implied Volatility?

Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

What do the Analysts Think?

Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Finisar shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Finisar is a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) in the Fiber Optics industry that ranks in the Top 18% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, no analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while six have dropped their estimates. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from 25 cents per share to 12 cents in that period.

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Given the way analysts feel about Finisar right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.

Looking to Trade Options? 

Each week, our very own Dave Bartosiak gives his top options trades. Check out his recent live analysis and options trade for the NFLX earnings report completely free. See it here: Bartosiak: Trading Netflix's (NFLX) Earnings with Options or check out the embedded video below for more details:

 


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Zacks Investment Research