Yahoo Finance Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Oshkosh's (NYSE:OSK) recent performance, when its stock has declined 5.2% over the past three months. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Oshkosh's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
View our latest analysis for Oshkosh
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Oshkosh is:
17% = US$683m ÷ US$3.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.17 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
A Side By Side comparison of Oshkosh's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE
To start with, Oshkosh's ROE looks acceptable. Even when compared to the industry average of 15% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Given the circumstances, we can't help but wonder why Oshkosh saw little to no growth in the past five years. So, there could be some other aspects that could potentially be preventing the company from growing. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Oshkosh's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 11% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is OSK fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is Oshkosh Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Oshkosh has a low three-year median payout ratio of 22% (or a retention ratio of 78%) but the negligible earnings growth number doesn't reflect this as high growth usually follows high profit retention.
Additionally, Oshkosh has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 16% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.
Summary
On the whole, we do feel that Oshkosh has some positive attributes. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
