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Progressive (PGR) May Earnings Decline, Premiums Rise Y/Y

The Progressive Corporation PGR reported earnings per share of 15 cents for May 2022 that dropped 73% year over year. The decline was due to higher expenses and net realized loss on securities.

May Numbers in Detail

Progressive recorded net premiums written of $3.7 billion, up 9% from $3.4 billion in the year-ago month. Net premiums earned were $3.8 billion, up 11% from $3.4 billion reported in the year-ago month.

Net realized loss on securities was $89 million versus a gain of $146.3 million in the year-ago month.

The combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 340 basis points (bps) year over year to 96.5.

Progressive’s operating revenues were $3.9 billion, improving 11.4% year over year, owing to an 11.1% increase in premiums, an 11.8% jump in service revenues, a 33.6% higher investment income, and 4.7% higher fees.

Total expenses rose 14.9% to $3.7 billion, primarily on account of 17.9% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, a 3.7% rise in policy acquisition costs and a 5.2% increase in other underwriting expenses.

In May, policies in force were impressive for both Vehicle and Property businesses. In its Vehicle business, the Personal Auto segment declined 2% year over year to 17.2 million. Special Lines increased 5% from the year-earlier month to 5.4 million policies.

In Progressive’s Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto declined 4% to 7.7 million while Direct Auto remained flat at 9.5 million.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 14% year over year to about 1 million. The Property business had 2.8 million policies in force in the reported month, up 7% year over year.

Progressive’s book value per share was $27.18 as of May 31, 2022, down 12% from $30.90 on May 30, 2021.

Return on equity in the trailing 12 months was -5.8%, having contracted 3750 (basis points) bps from 31.7% in May 2021. The debt-to-total-capital ratio deteriorated 550 bps year over year to 28 as of May 31, 2022.

Price Performance

Progressive’s shares have gained 9.7% year to date against the industry’s decrease of 7.6%.

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Zacks Rank

Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks from the property and casualty insurance industry are W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB, HCI Group, Inc. HCI and American Financial Group, Inc. AFG. While W.R. Berkley sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), HCI Group and American Financial carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

W.R. Berkley’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 27.08%. In the past year, W.R. Berkley's stock has increased 37.6%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WRB’s 2022 and 2023 earnings has moved 4.9% and 4.1% north, respectively, in the past 30 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HCI Group’s 2022 and 2023 earnings has moved 33.3% and 40% north, respectively, in the past 60 days. In the past year, HCI Group’s stock has lost 34.6%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HCI’s 2022 and 2023 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 280.9% and 75%, respectively.

American Financial’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 41.72%. In the past year, American Financial has gained 8.1%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFG’s 2022 and 2023 earnings has moved 9.8% and 6.9% north, respectively, in the past 30 days.

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