Yahoo Finance Is Ryman Healthcare Limited (NZSE:RYM) Worth NZ$12.32 Based On Intrinsic Value?
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Ryman Healthcare Limited (NZSE:RYM) by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in November 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Ryman Healthcare
Is RYM fairly valued?
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF (NZ$, Millions) | NZ$-60.00 | NZ$-72.50 | NZ$-59.00 | NZ$13.00 | NZ$266.00 |
Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 |
Present Value Discounted @ 9.01% | NZ$-55.04 | NZ$-61.01 | NZ$-45.55 | NZ$9.21 | NZ$172.82 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NZ$20m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 5%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NZ$266m × (1 + 5%) ÷ (9% – 5%) = NZ$7.0b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = NZ$7.0b ÷ ( 1 + 9%)5 = NZ$4.6b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is NZ$4.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of NZ$9.23. Relative to the current share price of NZ$12.32, the stock is rather overvalued at the time of writing.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Ryman Healthcare as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For RYM, I’ve compiled three fundamental aspects you should look at:
Financial Health: Does RYM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does RYM’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of RYM? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NZSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
