Advertisement
New Zealand markets closed

  • NZX 50

    11,946.43
    +143.15 (+1.21%)
     

  • NZD/USD

    0.5935
    +0.0001 (+0.02%)
     

  • NZD/EUR

    0.5545
    +0.0004 (+0.07%)
     

  • ALL ORDS

    7,937.50
    -0.40 (-0.01%)
     

  • ASX 200

    7,683.00
    -0.50 (-0.01%)
     

  • OIL

    82.81
    0.00 (0.00%)
     

  • GOLD

    2,329.00
    -9.40 (-0.40%)
     

  • NASDAQ

    17,526.80
    +55.33 (+0.32%)
     

  • FTSE

    8,040.38
    -4.43 (-0.06%)
     

  • Dow Jones

    38,460.92
    -42.77 (-0.11%)
     

  • DAX

    18,088.70
    -48.95 (-0.27%)
     

  • Hang Seng

    17,201.27
    +372.34 (+2.21%)
     

  • NIKKEI 225

    38,460.08
    +907.92 (+2.42%)
     

  • NZD/JPY

    92.0850
    +0.3190 (+0.35%)
     

Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs

Michael Boutros

DailyFX.com -

Talking Points

  • USDCAD coiled up heading into major event risk this week

  • Scalps favor shorts sub-1.2524 (weekly opening range break to validate)

  • Key Event Risk on Tap

USD/CAD Daily

Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs
Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD consolidation in focus ahead of major event risk, March opening range

  • Key resistance 1.2646 –bearish invalidation

  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 1.2798 & 1.3063

  • Interim support 1.2420/30 (TL confluence)

  • Key support 1.2250/83 (bullishinvalidation)

  • Event Risk Ahead: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision tomorrow & US NFP tomorrow

USD/CAD 30min

Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs
Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs

Notes:A strong GDP release today charged a break of the initial weekly opening range low with the decline rebounding off a Fibonacci support confluence at 1.2420/32. Note that the intra-day momentum signature dropped to its lowest levels since February 12th (after the pair had just failed a breach above the 1.2646 bearish invalidation level) and keeps our immediate bias weighted to the short-side while within the descending pitchfork formation. Note that the weekly opening range now looks to have been set between 1.2432-1.2564 with a break to validate our directional bias.

ADVERTISEMENT

Bottom line: we’ll be looking to sell rallies while within the confines of this median-line construct with our bearish invalidation level eyed at 1.2524. A break below 1.2420/32 targets more significant support at the confluence of last week’s low & the 61.8% extension of the decline off the late February high at 1.2386/93 and is backed by the February lows 1.2350/61. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 31-34 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into key event risk this week with the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow and the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday likely to fuel added volatility in CAD & USD crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs
Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFXat 13:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video


original source

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.