Rivian's stock has an electric amount of upside potential.
At least that is the good word from top Wall Street auto analyst at Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas.
The often headline-making Jonas — known for his bullish calls on Rivian rival Tesla — thinks Rivian's stock warrants at least a 160% surge from levels he believes are overly depressed.
"An IPO that preceded the December market top, the reality-check of supply chain bottlenecks (normal in auto land, perhaps not normal in tech land), and the gut-check of having partner Amazon exercise its right to secure EDVs from alternative vendors (Stellantis, Daimler) has shaken investor confidence and, we think, provides an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to a company, product cycle, and business model that we believe has a greater chance [of] being a winner in this industry than most other EV competitors. While Rivian is at a far earlier stage in its industrial journey than Tesla, we do not see this company as just a ‘concept stock’ either. The road to ramping production will be choppy, but we expect largely due to supply rather than demand," said Jonas in a new research note to clients.
Jonas has a $147 price target on Rivian.
Shares are down some 48% year-to-date to $53.94, swept up into the vicious interest rate fear driven rout in highly valued companies not earning any money. The company went public at a price of $78 a share on Nov. 15, 2021. It hit a closing high of $172 on Nov. 16.
Not helping market sentiment on Rivian is a mixed quarter out of Tesla on Wednesday night, a few weeks removed from its own earnings report.
Tesla shares plunged 12% to $829 on Thursday's session as Tesla said its business would be weighed down by supply chain challenges, mostly as it relates to semiconductor shortages. The company also said it would not unveil any new models this year.
Rivian's stock plunged 10.7% in Thursday's trading in sympathy.
The upstart electric truck maker hasn't done much on its part to shake off the bears, either.
In late December, Rivian said it would delay its electric pickup and sports utility vehicle featuring larger battery packs until 2023. And earlier this month, Rivian revealed it missed its 2021 production target by making 1,015 EVs versus its expectations for 1,225 pickups and SUVS.
Analysts see Rivian losing a whopping $5.2 billion in 2022 as it ramps up production.
"While we are impressed with demand for Rivian's initial vehicle models, list of investors, and balance sheet/liquidity position, the stock's valuation, forthcoming competition in the electric truck/SUV space, and potential quality-related concerns keep us on the sidelines. Additionally, we do not foresee profitability until mid-decade at the earliest," CFRA auto analyst Garrett Nelson said in a note.