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The UK General Election – It’s the Final Countdown

Bob Mason

It’s the eve of the UK General Election and could be the beginning of the end of Britain’s membership in the EU.

After 3-years of Brexit chatter, negotiations, renegotiations and what has led to a 3rd General Election in 4-years, the markets will be hoping to change the record…

Since Boris Johnson called a General Election, we’ve seen the Pound enjoy an upward trend, in spite of economic woes.

So, on the eve of the election, what do the latest polls, predictions and odds say…

The Opinion Polls

YouGov released its final 2019 General Election MRP on Tuesday.

According to the latest MRP,

  • YouGov has the Tories winning 339 seats. When considering the margin of error, however, this could fall to 311 seats or rise to 367 seats.
  • The latest numbers show that the chances of a hung parliament and a possible Labour – SNP coalition remaining.
  • By share of the vote, YouGov has the Tories with 43%, Labour with 34% and the Lib Dems with just 12%.

That’s back to a single-digit margin, which is far from a comprehensive lead for Johnson and the Brexiteers.

The Odds

The latest bookmakers’ odds saw some minor changes from the weekend.

According to Oddschecker,

For the Tories

  • Odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority moved from 3/8 to 4/9. Over the weekend, the odds had moved from 2/5 to 3/8.
  • The odds of the Tories winning the most seats continued to hold steady at 1/20 after having moved from 1/16 in the week ending 29th. This came off the back of a move from 1/14 to 1/16 ahead of the weekend of 23rd November.

For the opposition party

  • Oddschecker has the odds of Labour winning the most seats holding steady at 14/1. The odds had narrowed from 16/1 in the middle of last week.
  • The odds of an overall Labour majority moved from 25/1 to 33/1, however, after having held steady at 25/1 through last week.

Hung Parliament?

With the Lib Dems continuing to struggle, the odds of a hung parliament moved 11/4 to 13/5, after having moved from 5/2 to 11/4 going into the weekend. This came off the back of a widening from 2/1 to 5/2 mid-way through last week.

Over the weekend of 23rd November, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Predictions

The opinion polls and the bookmakers continue to have the Tories as the likely victors in next Thursday’s election.

Electoral Calculus has also continued to predict a Tory Party majority this time around. The predictions, however, have failed to ease uncertainty.

According to the latest predictions, based on opinion polls from between 4th and 9th of December,

For the Tories

  • Electoral Calculus predicts the Tories to win 349 seats, which would give a majority of 48.
  • Over the weekend, Electoral Calculus had predicted a 46 seat majority.
  • Mid-week last week, Electoral Calculus had predicted the Tories to win 339 seats, which would have given a majority of 28 seats.
  • This is good news for Johnson and the Brexiteers, with the majority now well above the recent low 12 seats.

For the Opposition Party

  • Labour has seen their predicted number of seats rise from 225 seats to 226 seats. This was down from 229 seats predicted in the middle of last week.
  • The upward trend from 208 levels back at the end of November, however, has raised the level of uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s election.

The Remaining Parties

  • The Scottish National Party have seen their predicted number of seats hold at 41, unchanged from the weekend, while down from a high of 47.
  • For the LIB Dems, there was no late support, with the Pro-Remainers predicted to win just 13 seats, unchanged from the weekend.

The Pound

After hitting 8-month highs, we’ve seen the Pound come under pressure this morning.

Increased sensitivity was to be expected as final pre-election opinion polls roll out.

While YouGov, the bookies, and Electoral Calculus have the Tories in 10 Downing Street, opinion polls narrowed slightly this week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.16% to $1.31341. In spite of the latest polls, the Pound avoided sub-$1.31 levels, with the markets continuing to bet on a Tory majority.

Tactical voting and more could undo the Pound, however, which has a long way to slide should the Tories falter…

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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