United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) Recent Stock Performance Looks Decent- Can Strong Fundamentals Be the Reason?
United Parcel Service's (NYSE:UPS) stock is up by 6.4% over the past three months. Given that the market rewards strong financials in the long-term, we wonder if that is the case in this instance. In this article, we decided to focus on United Parcel Service's ROE.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
Check out our latest analysis for United Parcel Service
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for United Parcel Service is:
58% = US$12b ÷ US$20b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.58.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
United Parcel Service's Earnings Growth And 58% ROE
To begin with, United Parcel Service has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 14% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. So, the substantial 21% net income growth seen by United Parcel Service over the past five years isn't overly surprising.
As a next step, we compared United Parcel Service's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 18%.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if United Parcel Service is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is United Parcel Service Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
United Parcel Service has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 58%, meaning the company only retains 42% of its income. This implies that the company has been able to achieve high earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.
Moreover, United Parcel Service is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 52% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that United Parcel Service's future ROE will drop to 36% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Overall, we are quite pleased with United Parcel Service's performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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