Yahoo Finance Volkswagen, Novartis could surprise in Q3 earnings season, UBS analysts warn
Investing.com -- Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG), Novartis (SIX:NOVN), and other stocks could present surprises to investors during the third quarter earnings season, as per analysts at UBS.
The analysts flag several key factors that could influence these stocks' performance and impact their earnings reports.
Volkswagen is among the companies flagged for potential negative surprises. The German automaker's exposure to the weakening European and Chinese markets, coupled with ongoing challenges in the automotive sector, places it in a precarious position.
UBS analysts note that Volkswagen's first-half earnings before interest and taxes fell short of the seasonal run rate required to meet 2024 expectations.
As a result, they anticipate that the company may revise its guidance downward, particularly as its EBIT for the first half of the year only achieved 47% of consensus expectations.
This potential for underperformance stems from broader sectoral weakness, with autos being one of the industries forecast to experience contracting growth in 2024.
Novartis is another company that UBS analysts expect to disappoint investors this earnings season. The pharmaceutical giant, though performing relatively well in certain segments, is facing downward revisions due to margin pressures.
UBS analysts point out that Novartis has only achieved 39% of the EBIT required for 2024 consensus estimates, a figure that suggests a significant miss unless the company can outperform in the latter half of the year.
Despite its strong market position, Novartis is grappling with sector-specific challenges, as healthcare equipment and biotechnology have seen mixed performance across Europe in recent months.
Conversely, some companies, like International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:ICAG), are positioned for potential positive surprises. UBS believes that IAG could exceed expectations, driven by a strong first-half EBIT performance, which accounted for 35% of its annual guidance.
The travel and transportation sectors have shown signs of resilience, and IAG's exposure to a recovering consumer demand environment could help lift its third quarter results beyond current market expectations.
UBS analysts underscore that guidance adjustments will play a critical role in shaping investor reactions during the third quarter earnings season.
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