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What's in the Offing for ASML Holding's (ASML) Q4 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research
·4-min read

ASML Holding N.V. ASML is slated to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 19.

For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenues between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.31 per share, which was revised upward by 0.2% over the past 30 days. The figure indicates growth of 11.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 17.46%, on average.

ASML Holding N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

ASML Holding N.V. Price and EPS Surprise
ASML Holding N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

ASML Holding N.V. price-eps-surprise | ASML Holding N.V. Quote

Factors to Consider

The impacts of ASML Holding’s portfolio strength, growing investments, expanding position in the memory market and increasing design wins are expected to get reflected in the fourth-quarter results.

Prospects around next-generation technology development, capacity additions at leading-edge nodes, and increasing competitive dynamics and investments in Extreme Ultraviolet (“EUV”) infrastructure are anticipated to have benefited the company’s performance across foundry and logic in the quarter under review.

ASML Holding is expected to have benefited from the improving demand for DRAM. Memory revenues are expected to have increased in the quarter to be reported, driven by healthy demand in data centers, with improving demand for consumer electronics.

The strengthening memory market, especially DRAM, and solid momentum in logic, owing to transitions to 5G as well as AI are likely to have driven the company’s EUV system revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Strong demand for advanced nodes in support of the build-up of digital infrastructure, which includes growth drivers such as 5G, AI and high-performance computing solutions, is expected to have acted as a tailwind, boosting the demand for the company’s products.

The application business of ASML Holding is expected to have continued to gain from the rising need for scanners in EUV and Deep Ultraviolet systems in the quarter under review.

The growing momentum of YieldStar 385 among customers is anticipated to have been a positive.

The service business is expected to have performed well in the fourth quarter, driven by the increasing contribution from EUV service revenues.

However, uncertainties related to the macro environment — including the economic impact of the pandemic and geopolitical developments — are expected to have been headwinds for the company in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ASML Holding this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ASML Holding currently has a Zacks Rank #4 and an Earnings ESP of +0.62%.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their soon-to-be-reported quarterly results.

Endava DAVA has an Earnings ESP of +1.70% and it sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Endava is scheduled to release the second-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Feb 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DAVA’s earnings is pegged at 59 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 55.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

MSCI MSCI has an Earnings ESP of +1.21% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

MSCI is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSCI’s earnings is pegged at $2.49 per share, which suggests an increase of 27% from the prior-year reported figure.

Monolithic Power Systems MPWR has an Earnings ESP of +2.83% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Monolithic Power Systems is set to report the fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPWR’s earnings is pegged at $1.87 per share, which suggests an increase of 42.8% from the prior-year reported figure.


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