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Why Novavax is Gaining Ground in COVID-19 Vaccine Race

COVID-19 Positive Rate Spikes

With more knowledge about the virus, ample funding, and new treatments, the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be behind us (from a death perspective). However, just because the Coronavirus death rate has dropped dramatically since its major peak in 2020 (and a subsequent spike in 2021) doesn’t mean that COVID-19 is still not negatively impacting people who get it.

Data from the CDC website shows that the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 has reached its highest level since early about two years.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: CDC

Though fewer people are dying from the virus, “long COVID” is something that people want to avoid because it can cause complications (not yet fully understood) that can include extreme fatigue, digestion issues, and potential brain issues in younger patients.

Novavax: A New Entrant in the COVID-19 Vaccine Realm

From a vaccine perspective, the two biggest winners from the COVID-19 vaccine race were Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). However, with COVID-19 stubbornly sticking around, investors should focus on an obscure, up-and-coming COVID-19 vaccine maker called Novavax.

Novavax Sanofi Deal Offers Distribution and Funding

Novavax (NVAX) is a biotech company that develops innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. In May, the company entered into a multi-billion-dollar partnership with French biotech giant Sanofi (SNY). NVAX shares jumped 80% for the week when the deal was announced because it offered NVAX a critical component it did not have – distribution.

Per the deal terms, Sanofi took a minority stake in NVAX (a $70 million equity investment), will gain rights to co-market Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine globally, and will have the sole license to develop and market NVAX’s COVID vaccine in combination with its influenza vaccine. NVAX also received a payment of $570 million from Sanofi, which was included in the deal.

Florida DOH Advises Against mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine

Distribution is one way that Novavax can tighten the vaccine race and catch up to more prominent players like PFE and MRNA. Another way is through its differentiated, non-mRNA vaccine. Friday, Moderna shares dove more than 12% on massive volume after the Florida Department of Health (DOH) advised against mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, citing seven safety and efficacy concerns. Novavax, which uses protein-based vaccines, is the clear beneficiary. NVAX shares jumped 14% Friday in reaction to the news.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

COVID-Influenza Combo Vaccine Could be Game-Changer

Novavax’s COVID-influenza drug is slated to reach late-stage trials by the end of 2024. Should the drug pass trials, this unique, first-of-its-kind drug should act as a bullish catalyst into year-end.

NVAX Stock's Bullish Chart Pattern

NVAX’s share price and volume action is mimicking its strong fundamental possibilities. The stock is carving out a bullish monthly bull flag pattern. Shares should accelerate to the upside if they can clear last month’s hammer candle highs of $14.09.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

Though Novavax is behind in the COVID-19 vaccine race, a blockbuster deal with Sanofi and a differentiated product means the stock offers the best reward prospects in the industry moving forward.

 


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Sanofi (SNY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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