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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Resistance Sub-0.79 Holding
The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data combined with a robust survey of German business morale to drive more unwinding of bullish dollar bets.
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Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Wednesday that there was no compelling reason for the central bank to tighten until 2016 adding that a rise in the dollar exerted clear disinflationary pressures.
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Investors had rushed to cut long dollar positions after the Federal Reserve gave a dovish steer on interest rates last week, sending the greenback crashing back from multiyear highs.
The U.S. dollar rebounded against the euro on Tuesday on persistent bullish sentiment toward the greenback tied to the divergence of monetary policy between the United States and Europe, but the impact of last week's Federal Reserve statement limited its gains. The dollar recovered against the euro after two straight sessions of losses on the view that the Fed will still hike interest rates this year, while the European Central Bank continues with its bond-buying stimulus program.
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A softer number, as was registered earlier on Tuesday in Britain, could boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will be in no hurry to raise interest rates. San Francisco Fed chief John Williams weighed in on the debate over the dollar's gains, saying the U.S. economy could handle a stronger currency and pointing to the chance of an interest rate rise in June. Other Federal Reserve officials, and new forecasts from the U.S. central bank, have cast doubt on how much more appreciation of the dollar the Fed will easily tolerate and raised speculation it will push back any tightening of monetary policy.
San Francisco Fed chief John Williams was the latest to weigh in on the debate over the dollar's gains, saying the U.S. economy could handle a stronger currency and pointing to the chance of an interest rate rise in June. It last traded at $0.7876, down just 0.1 percent on the day.
The most recent report on consumer expenditures shows that Americans may be cutting back on extra expenses.
Market participants also attributed the dollar's bounce to technical factors and said the greenback may face further long liquidation after the Fed signalled last week that it is in no rush to tighten monetary policy. Traders said the greenback gained a boost after San Francisco Fed chief John Williams reiterated that the Fed should seriously discuss raising rates by mid-year. The dollar also gained a boost after finding some support on technical charts, said Shinji Kureda, head of FX trading group for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Tokyo.
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"The market is still positioned long dollars, short euros, so it's vulnerable to any kind of correction," said David Gilmore, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Connecticut, on the unwinding of long-dollar bets. The euro continued to strengthen against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he expected consumer prices to rise gradually by the end of the year even if they might remain very low or negative in the months ahead. "Draghi's optimistic comments...added fuel to the recovery in the euro," said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management in New York.
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The dollar started trade in Asia on the defensive, after a volatile few days in the wake of the Federal Reserve's dovish steer, which cast doubts on bullish positions in the greenback. The dollar index eased 0.2 percent to 97.696 early on Monday, staying well clear of a 12-year peak of 100.390 set on March 13.
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The greenback also ended the week on a sour note against other currencies, with its largest weekly decline in two months against the Swiss franc and yen, two days after the Federal Reserve downgraded its forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates. Jens Nordvig, Nomura's head of global foreign exchange, said one major reason for the sharp reduction in the Fed's rate forecasts was the strengthening of the dollar since the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in December.
The dollar plunged across the board on Wednesday after the Fed downgraded its projections for growth and inflation, pouring cold water on investor expectations of a June rise in U.S. interest rates. Having dived to as low as 96.628 against a basket of major currencies in the wake of the Fed, the dollar was trading at 98.729 on Friday, down 0.5 percent on the day and on track for its first week of falls in five.
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The greenback plunged across the board on Wednesday after the Fed downgraded its economic growth and inflation projections, signalling it is in no rush to push borrowing costs to more normal levels and pouring cold water on investor expectations of a June rate hike. Having dived to as low as 96.628 against a basket of major currencies in the wake of the Fed, the dollar was trading at 98.952 on Friday, down 0.1 percent on the day on track for its first week of falls in five. Papadavid said she expected the euro downtrend to resume, and BNP Paribas yesterday revised down their euro forecasts to parity with the dollar by the end of this year from $1.05 previously and to $0.95 by the second quarter of 2016.
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The Australian dollar is weaker against the greenback despite a sell off of the US dollar late on Friday. At 1700 AEDT on Friday, the Australian dollar was worth 76.85 US cents, down from 77.30 US cents, on Thursday. The Australian dollar dropped one US cent in overnight trade as the greenback recovered from its sharp fall after the US central bank signalled it was in no hurry to raise rates. The Australian dollar rose above 78 US cents on Thursday.
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Rebounding from steep losses in the previous session on a more cautious than expected Federal Reserve statement on interest rates, the dollar rose broadly on Thursday as investors remained bullish on the greenback. Against the Swiss franc, it posted its worst daily performance since Jan. 15, when the Swiss National Bank removed a peg on the Swiss franc against the euro. Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac in New York, said the Fed's dovish statement was an excuse to sell lopsided positions on the dollar. "The Fed is less supportive of the dollar, but the dollar's bull trend is built on more than just the Fed," he said.