|Day's range||39.84 - 40.50|
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities are gaining ground as the second half gets under way, with Brent in the $40s a barrel and copper posting a seventh weekly rise. Next week brings valuable insights into energy, metals and crop markets before the earnings season hits high gear later in July. The overarching themes remain the pandemic, state of lockdowns, and prospects for demand.The International Energy Agency leads the line-up with its monthly overview of the worldwide oil market as OPEC and allies ratchet back supplies. Crop traders will dissect the latest WASDE snapshot, with corn a particular focus. And metals markets are primed for more virus-related disruptions in Chile, which may aid copper, as well as signals of booming iron ore flows, which may hurt prices.A brace of companies report, with numbers from Suedzucker AG, Europe’s top sugar producer, and major cocoa processor Barry Callebaut AG. And last but not least, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin take part on Tuesday in a discussion on the U.S. economy hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.By the NumbersOil-market watchers will keep a keen eye on the International Energy Agency’s monthly report on the global crude market next week for signals on how consumption is recovering from the virus-induced slump. The market will also examine key compliance data, which the IEA releases every month, indicating to what extent the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are making the cutbacks they’ve pledged to clear a glut and shore up prices.Last month, OPEC’s output fell to the lowest since 1991, while Russia reached near-total compliance with its quota. Meanwhile, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show crude supplies from OPEC’s Middle East exporters, excluding Iran, fell for a second month in June as Saudi Arabia and key Persian Gulf allies made further voluntary production cuts on top of the unprecedented 9.7 million barrels a day agreed by the OPEC+ group of countries in April. OPEC will release its own monthly oil market report on July 14.Red AlertThe global copper market will be on alert next week for any further signs that supplies from key producer Chile are being disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic as mine workers fall ill. With prices capping a seventh weekly advance in London following BHP Group’s move to curtail operations at one site, investors and traders will also track the metal’s technical backdrop.Driven by the powerful recovery in prices since March, copper’s 50-day moving average is fast closing in on its 200-day counterpart and may move above it next week. That pattern, a so-called golden cross, can portend further gains. Still, the last time chart watchers saw it for copper was right at the start of 2020, just before the metal swooned as the pandemic erupted.The Big QuestionThe U.S. Department of Agriculture just rocked the corn market when it said American farmers planted a lot fewer acres than analysts had expected. Traders will be anxious to see how that impacts the U.S. corn outlook in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates update on July 10. The big question: will the smaller plantings be enough to make up for declining demand in ethanol production, helping to keep inventories under control?And in Brazil, the second-largest corn exporter after the U.S., the crop is now seen coming in below initial estimates after adverse weather affected some regions. Traders will be looking for the Conab release on Wednesday to make that adjustment in its July report.Hungry for InformationEarnings next week from Suedzucker and Barry Callebaut should give a fresh glimpse of how the sugar and chocolate sectors are holding up, particularly as more shops and restaurants reopen in Europe. Figures from Suedzucker, Europe’s top sugar producer, are due Thursday and traders will watch for clues on whether the region’s prices will gain amid previously expected shortages, despite worries that slowing economies will curb demand.Barry Callebaut could give the cocoa market more clarity on how chocolate demand is faring when the major processor reports results on Thursday, too. Grindings beat expectations in Europe and Asia earlier this year, but analysts said that was more to do with ramping up output ahead of potential supply-chain disruptions, rather than real consumption. The market’s been under pressure lately, with London futures near the lowest in more than a year.Hitting FiftyIron ore prices are on the slide, dropping into the $90s a ton on indications that surging global supplies are easing tightness in the seaborne market. With vessel-tracking data pointing to a jump in flows from Australia, next week should bring confirmation of another bumper month at Port Hedland, possibly a record. The world’s largest bulk-export terminal is used by miners including BHP Group, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. and Roy Hill Holdings Pty.The print for June’s performance should come in the opening half of the week -- there’s no fixed date for the release -- and the figure may surpass the peak of 48.9 million tons set a year ago. This week, Brazil reported exports of 30 million tons for June, well up on the prior month and narrowly ahead of the year-ago number. Between them, the two nations account for the majority of worldwide exports, with cargoes feeding China’s mammoth steel industry.For the DiaryClick here for oil marketsClick here for gas marketsClick here for metals marketsClick here for agriculture marketsClick here for the latest DaybreakAnd for the global stage, click hereFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Stock market rallied during the week, but as you can see on the S&P; 500, we have reached towards the top of the previous couple of candlesticks on the chart.
Crude oil markets rallied during the week as we headed towards the Independence Day holiday.
Crude oil markets have done little on Friday, as we are pressing previous resistance. It was a holiday in the United States and liquidity was very low.
Gold markets formed a neutral candlestick for the week, after briefly breaking through the $1800 barrier.
Silver markets did not do much on Friday as the Americans were away observing Independence Day weekend.
Natural gas did truly little on Friday, but we remained near the resistance at $1.80. That in itself is a sign the buyers are still looking to take control.
Oil swings between gains and losses near the key resistance level.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil slipped on Friday, paring a weekly gain, as concern of demand erosion from a coronavirus resurgence countered strong U.S. economic data.Futures fell to about $40 a barrel in New York as the virus continues to spread unabated across large parts of the U.S., clouding the outlook for energy demand. Crude prices gained 4.2% for the week as data showed a rebound in the U.S. jobs market accelerated in early June and American crude stockpiles shrank by the most this year. A survey showed OPEC oil production dropped last month to the lowest since 1991.The worsening pandemic may not have been fully captured in the jobs data, which provided a snapshot of hiring in the middle of the month before many states reversed course on their re-openings.“We have had a sharp recovery in demand for energy products that has occurred from March to end of May,” Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities commodity strategist, said by phone. “Since then the pace of recovery has slowed. There is concern that this stall may be a signal of weakness in demand that’s tied to the rise in coronavirus cases in the U.S.”Adding to the murky demand outlook, Chinese oil inventories swelled to a record this week, satellite data show, after the world’s biggest oil importer went on a buying spree last quarter as the economy rebounded. The stockpiles may indicate a slowdown in buying by the East Asian country.That outlook was balanced by the OPEC+ alliance’s commitment to reducing output, with Russia showing near total compliance with its targets. The group hasn’t made any decision yet on whether to extend its full cutback -- which stands at 9.6 million barrels a day -- into August, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. Ministers from the coalition next meet on July 15.West Texas Intermediate for August delivery fell 51 cents to $40.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:18 a.m. local time, after closing up 2.1% on Thursday. Brent for September settlement declined 49 cents to $42.65 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, paring its weekly gain to 4%. Trading volumes were low as the U.S. took a day off ahead of the July 4 holiday.The global benchmark crude’s three-month timespread remained in contango -- where prompt contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- but the spread has narrowed in recent days, indicating that concerns about oversupply have eased slightly.The decline in U.S. oil production continued as working rigs fell for a 16th week to the least since 2009, according to Baker Hughes data released Thursday. Exxon Mobil Corp., meanwhile, reported an unprecedented second straight quarterly loss as almost every facet of the energy giant’s business slumped.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Focus on key growth projects, disciplined capital allocation strategy and higher gold prices are driving Newmont's (NEM) shares.
The Euro went back and forth during the week, forming another wick that extended higher. However, the most recent wick was lower than the ones preceding it.
The Australian dollar rallied again during the week, reaching towards the top of the same consolidation area that we have been in for over a month.
The British pound did little during the trading session on Friday as it was a US holiday.
The Australian dollar rallied a bit on Friday, but as it is the holiday in the United States, there would have been a bit of liquidity problems out there.
With the exception of Thursday’s rally, most of the gains were attributed to hot weather and short-covering. And maybe some speculative buyers.
S&P; 500 is trying to get above the resistance at 3150 as optimism about economic recovery is tested by the worsening situation on the coronavirus front.
Gains were capped and there was an air of caution ahead of the long holiday weekend as a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus infections fanned concerns.
(Bloomberg) -- The world’s fastest-growing oil market is showing an uneven recovery two months after easing demand-destroying virus-control measures.Provisional fuel sales in June had climbed within 88% of 2019 levels from less than half in April in the midst of the world’s biggest lockdown, the oil ministry said citing sales of the three major state-owned retailers. But diesel and petrol, typically the two most-sold fuels and proxies for the nation’s economic health, lagged that mark, while sales of cooking gas surged.The June data “comes in the backdrop of Indian economy gradually getting momentum with the ease of lockdown restrictions and revival of economic activities that are slowly getting back on track,” the oil ministry said in a statement. The figures represent sales by three state-owned oil refiners and retailers Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., which together control about 90% of the country’s petroleum fuels market.Total fuel sales were propped up by a surge in liquid petroleum gases, which are used for cooking and have seen increased consumption as people spend more time at home.Sales of diesel, the country’s most-consumed fuel, were at 5.5 million tons in June, up 20% from May but still down 17% from a year ago, according to officials with direct knowledge of the companies’ activities, who asked not to be identified because the data wasn’t public.Petrol also rebounded from May but was well below 2019 levels, while aviation fuel sales are still 67% below last year’s figures as international flights remain restricted, even as domestic travel has resumed.Crude throughput at refineries owned by the three state-owned firms are currently at about 85%, up from as low as 55% in early-April, according to the government statement dated July 1.SOURCE: Government data; all figures in tonsNOTE: * represents data from refinery officials with knowledge of the companies’ fuel salesOil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said last week that he expects fuel demand in the third-biggest oil consumer to return to normal by the end of September. His projection was more bullish than those by the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which don’t see India’s fuel demand at normal levels until the end of this year.India’s rebound has remained far behind that of its neighbor China, where demand bounced back swiftly after the nation made early progress in containing the spread of coronavirus and pledged an injection of liquidity into markets.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil closed at its highest level in almost four months before the U.S. holiday weekend, cheered by signs the world’s biggest economy is recovering from coronavirus-related lockdowns, even as fears linger over a resurgence.Prices strengthened after a Labor Department report showed that payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June and the previous month was revised higher. That built on gains on Wednesday from a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles as well as plunging output from OPEC producers. But further upside may be limited as fresh outbreaks of the virus are reported across the nation, prompting some states to pause or even reverse re-opening measures.“The higher than expected increase in non-farm payrolls is supportive on the heels of yesterday’s larger than expected crude draw,” said Michael Hiley, head of over-the-counter energy trading at New York-based LPS Futures. “The surges in new Covid-19 cases may dampen expectations of things opening.”While oil has recovered from an unprecedented market crash and is back at levels last seen in early March, the rebound in fuel consumption has been patchy at best. The scale of the challenge was highlighted in a report that U.S. gasoline demand over the Fourth of July weekend -- normally the peak of the summer driving season -- will be at least 20% lower than a year ago.“Gasoline has carried the load on recovery and demand, and it’s not clear whether that could continue into August and September,” said Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group.Oil has also been buoyed by evidence that efforts to scale back production are working. A survey on Wednesday showed OPEC output fell to the least since 1991 in June, while Russia reached near total compliance with its OPEC+ quota.OPEC+ hasn’t made any decision yet on whether to extend its full production cutback -- which stands at 9.6 million barrels a day -- into August, or ease it as initially planned to 7.7 million at the end of this month, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. The coalition will meet on July 15 to decide.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Bitcoin briefly broke below $9,000 on Thursday, but the markets remain quiet.
Stock rose on Thursday, as investors cheered the resiliency of a U.S. economy that created nearly 5 million jobs last month in the throes of the raging coronavirus pandemic.
US yields eased despite robust jobs numbers
Silver market has been noisy on Thursday as we awaited the jobs figure, but it looks as if the $18 level is going to continue to offer potential support.