|Day's range||0.88 - 0.881|
|52-week range||0.86355 - 0.90095|
Analysts looking for key drivers over the near-term that will ultimately decide the fate of a number of currencies, economies and ultimately whether a new crisis dawns.
EURGBP is presently struggling with 50-day SMA level of 0.8940 in order to aim for the 0.8980 trend-line resistance, breaking which 0.9000 and the 0.9030 may regain market attention. With the immediate descending trend-line presently questioning the GBPAUD’s rise around 1.8185, the pair can drop back to 1.8055 and the 1.8000 round-figure but the 1.7930-15 and the 1.7815 TL might confine its further declines. Meanwhile, break of the 1.8185 trend-line can propel the pair to 1.8290 & 1.8350 resistances but the 1.8400 could limit the pair’s advances afterwards.
In this introduction, we will define the types of currency pairs and cover some of the basics you’ll need to know before you begin trading the ‘exotics’.
One wonders how the Eurozone will achieve higher core inflation if monetary policy slowly tightens and the economic activity slows. Should the Euro appreciate and get back above, say, the 1.20 mark against the greenback, it will be even harder for inflation to accelerate.
Today is one of the busiest days on the market in terms of the macro events in the past few months. Rates from the BoE, ECB, CPI data from US and job data from Australia. Nice, huh? In our trading, we try to reduce the risk as much as possible. We do that by, for example, not trading during those macro events. That is why, today, we will focus on DAX and WTI but if you like the thrill, here You are, the small part about the EURGBP:
One of the best setups at the beginning of the week can be found on the GBPUSD. The pair is on the back foot and the main reasons for that, from the fundamental point of view, are the weaker PMI number and the new comments from Mr. Barnier regarding Brexit. This comes in line with the technical analysis, which was giving us a sell signal as early as on Friday.
EUR/GBP has formed an ascending trend line confluence that is suggesting a further uptrend continuation. The POC zone 0.8900-10 is a possible bouncing spot where fresh buyers could turn the price up. Deeper retracement might target 0.8885-95 and that is also the zone where buyers might be waiting. The first target is 0.8930 followed by 0.8962 on a successful break of 0.8935.
The UK’s retail sales figures dropped unexpectedly in June. Sales declined by 0.5% in June compared to a growth of 1.4% in May. YoY Retail sales grew by 2.9, below analysts expectation of 3.7%. Pound hits a 10-month low near 1.30 versus the US dollar.
The British Pound continues its fall on Wednesday morning, trading at 1.3087, down 0.18%. The pound falls on reports that Theresa May could face a defeat on the latest Brexit Vote.
The pound sterling has been trying to strengthen over the last few days but has not succeeded so far. The major fear of the pound traders lies in Brexit negotiations which are paused or disputed every now and then. Jobless claims in the UK rose by 7,800 against the expectations at 2,300 and the previous number of 7,700.
the ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes cover the June ECB meeting where policymakers announced a taper to the QE program and an exit from QE by December 2018.
Cable (GBPUSD) took a hit yesterday as Boris Johnson resigned from the Cabinet following the earlier decision by David Davis to part ways with his post as Brexit Secretary. Global stocks rise on Tuesday morning ahead of US earnings season.
The British Pound is looking rather sad on the currency market today. It’s not only because of the USD behavior, that puts pressure on other traded currencies. Another reason is that investors are trying to avoid any risks that are connected with the Pound, including the Brexit complications.
The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi was speaking at the banking conference event in Portugal last week. The main take away from the speech was that the ECB president promised that the ECB would take time to hike interest rates.
The EUR/GBP pair went back and forth during the trading sessions that make up the week, as we continue to find the 0.88 level above resistive enough to keep this market down. However, I think that the sideways action of this market keeps a lot of longer-term traders on the sidelines.
The Euro rallied against the British pound during the day on Friday, continuing the choppiness that we have seen over the last couple of days. We sold off rather drastically on Thursday, have bounced towards the 0.8750 level a couple of times, but have yet to break above there.
The European Union had a press conference and interest rate meeting during the day on Thursday, which of course was unchanged. However, they did step down the quantitative easing, dropping from buying €30 billion per month and the bond market to only buying €15 billion per month, which of course is the next step in a tightening cycle.
The Euro rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 0.8825 level again. This is a significant resistance barrier that continues to keep the market somewhat under wraps, but by the end of the day we should see some clarity as the European Central Bank will have a statement today.
The EUR/GBP pair has rallied significantly during the day on Tuesday, using the 0.88 level as a bit of a springboard. Now that we are reaching towards the 0.8850 level, if we can break above there it’s likely that we could continue to go even higher. Once we break above there, I suspect that the 0.89 level will be targeted.
The Euro rallied against the British pound on Monday, as we have seen bridge pound weakness in general. I believe that the market should continue to go higher, if we can finally break above the 0.8835 level. A move above there should send this market to the 0.89 handle.
The breakaway gap in the Euro (in this article, we use “Euro” to refer to the currency pair EUR/USD) on the 24th of April 2017 on the back of positive first round French election results that weekend broke through a resistance trendline from 2014, a 5-month ascending triangle and the 200-day moving average. It heralded a reversal in the trend of the Euro and what followed was a near 1-year rally that took the price from 1.087 to a high of 1.2558, a rise of 15.5%. After consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, the Euro broke to the downside and has been falling for over a month now.
The Euro rallied significantly during the week, breaking above the 0.88 level. The 0.88 level has caused both support and resistance as of late, so it’s not a huge surprise that we pull back from there. Overall, this is a market that continues to be very noisy.
The Euro fell initially during the trading session on Friday but found enough support underneath the turn around and rally towards the 0.88 level again. If we can break above that level, the market should continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the highs again at the 0.8840 level.