|Day's range||1.169 - 1.175|
|52-week range||1.1315 - 1.2558|
The market started the week with a bullish note, as the pair broke above the 1.17 level, reaching towards 1.1725 level. The British Pound shot higher during the Monday’s session reaching towards the 1.33 level but got enough resistance to fell slightly lower. The market rallied a bit during the Friday’s session reaching towards the 0.7450 level, as it found enough buyers to take the market forward.
Key stats out of the UK over the next few days could reinforce an August rate hike by the BoE, while FED Chair Powell may need to elaborate on possible effects of the trade war in the economy and policy.
The Euro rallied a bit during the Monday session, reaching towards 1.1725 level, before running into the heart of extreme volatility from a couple of weeks ago. Because of this, and the fact that we are starting to pull back a little bit, it looks as if we may continue to see choppy volatility.
U.S. retail sales posted a firm gain in June, helped by increases in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, solidifying expectations for robust economic growth in the second quarter. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunged below $69, dropping a whopping 3 percent after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said some oil buyers could get waivers to continue buying Iranian supplies despite American sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at 1.1679 to 1.1680. This is being formed by a combination of an uptrending Gann angle and a 50% level. The single-currency is following through to the upside, following Friday’s closing price reversal bottom and subsequent confirmation earlier today. This could trigger a minimum 2 to 3 day rally.
The market continued to move lower during the Wednesday’s session reaching down towards the 1.16 level but managed to bounce a little as it witnessed some buying interest around the area. If the market further breaks from here, the next major support will be at 1.15 level. There are a lot of political developments coming out of Europe and also the trade wars are building pressure on the market and hammering the Euro. A break above 1.17 level could bring some amount of stability to the market. …Read MoreGBP/USD
New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.
The euro continues to trade in a range with the region around 1.16 providing some strong support over the last couple of weeks which has helped it to keep afloat
Softer economic growth in China weighed on risk appetite early in the day, with the U.S – Russia Summit, trade tariff chatter and U.S retail sales figures in focus through the day.
Based on last week’s close at 1.1687, the direction of the EUR/USD this week is likely to be determined by investor reaction to the pivot at 1.1680. The most important area to watch this week is the 50%/Gann angle combination at 1.1680 to 1.1675. Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 1.1680 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 1.1675.
The Euro fell a bit during the week, but still sees a significant amount of support underneath, especially near the 1.15 level underneath. I believe that the market will continue to look at that market as being very well supported, but it’s obvious that the difficulties continue.
The Euro fell initially during the day on Friday, reaching down to the 1.1600 level initially, but is looking like buyers are coming back into trying to lift this market at what I think is a reasonably strong demand level.
The market further dipped lower during the Thursday’s session testing the 1.1650 level, an area which has been a support more than once. The reaction in the market is due to the details in the ECB meeting minutes. Going ahead, the market is likely to hold this level and will also attract buyers interest. If the market further breaks from here, then it will rapidly unwind towards the 1.16 level. …Read MoreGBP/USD
The pair has been lost for direction over the last 24 hours and it awaits the next piece of fundamentals to start pushing through the range
While risk appetite returns to the markets, the Dollar looks to have found its some upside in the early part of the day, though it could all change should sentiment towards trade tariffs take another turn.
The Euro fell towards the 1.1650 level during trading on Thursday, after initially having a relatively flat session. This may have been in reaction to the ECB meeting minutes, but at the end of the day it’s also likely that it had more to do with a simple pull back.
Based on the early trade, the key level to watch is 1.1659. This support cluster is being formed by a combination of an uptrending Gann angle and the short-term 50% level. Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1659 all session. Trader reaction to this price cluster is controlling the direction of the market today. Look for volatility at 1230 GMT with the release of the U.S. consumer inflation report.
The risk tap opened this morning, providing much needed support for the Asian equity markets and the commodity currencies, with focus now shifting to the release of the ECB policy meeting minutes and U.S inflation figures.
The market in the short term is likely to continue volatile as confusion relating to the rate hike by ECB remains. The pair had a choppy session during the yesterday’s session, initially trying to rally during the day but found enough resistance to turn around and fall towards the 1.3225 level.
the ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes cover the June ECB meeting where policymakers announced a taper to the QE program and an exit from QE by December 2018.
The pair has been falling over the last couple of days as the dollar begins to gain strength all across the board
The Euro has been very volatile during the day on Tuesday, dropping down towards the 1.17 level before rallying again. Initially, one of the ECB members mentioned that summer time 2019 is the earliest that you would see a rate hike, but since then it has been suggested that some of the other members are much more hawkish. In the end, we essentially are recovering the losses and not much is changed.
Inability to sustain the break of nearly two-month old descending trend-line seems dragging EURUSD towards 1.1680 re-test, clearing which the 1.1600 and the 1.1540 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.1730-40 region, comprising 50-day SMA & aforementioned TL, could keep restricting the pair’s near-term upside, which if broken might trigger its recovery targeting the 1.1840 and the 1.1935-40 resistances. Alike EURUSD, the GBPUSD also couldn’t surpass adjacent trend-line, needless to mention about 50-day SMA.
Based on the current price at 1.1714, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 1.1720.