|Day's range||1,323.80 - 1,330.80|
LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — The longtime standoff between Olympic champion Caster Semenya and track and field's governing body over issues of gender, hormones and performance in sports reached a pivotal phase on Monday as a key tribunal began hosting a planned five-day hearing in a case that could have massive repercussions throughout sports.
With that being Presidents’ Day in the United States, it’s a holiday for stock market traders. That being the case, the futures market would be very thin and was a shortened electronic trading session anyway.
Silver markets rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday, but at the end of the day it is a scenario where there was a lack of liquidity because of the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States.
The crude oil markets didn’t do much on Monday, but when you look at the charts overall they do show quite a bit of strength. I think at this point, the market is certainly trying to break out from the longer-term standpoint, but obviously we have a lot of noise in the market.
Natural gas markets of course did very little during the trading session on Monday, which makes quite a bit of sense as the Americans were celebrating Presidents’ Day, and at this point if the Americans aren’t on board, the market simply don’t move much.
Gold markets rallied a bit during the session on Monday to continue to show strength. We have been grinding higher for some time, so this shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that the buyers are very determined.
The British pound gapped higher to kick off the week, breaking above the 1.2950 level. This is a good sign, and I think that the British pound is trying to come back into play with previous support underneath.
The British pound gapped higher to kick off the week, and then continue to go higher. With that being the case, it’s likely that the market is looking at the US/China trade situation with a bit more optimism as this pair will be very sensitive to it.
The evidence is in and we have to conclude that gold isn’t breaking sharply because the U.S. Dollar is not that strong. Therefore, demand for dollar-denominated gold should not be dropping as one may think. The data clearly shows that as a gold trader, you shouldn’t be worried about the U.S. Dollar at this time, but rather the Euro.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of a closing price reversal top on Thursday and its confirmation earlier today.
With the poor economic numbers from the US, the market is likely to favour a move to the upside and try moving towards the top of the consolidation phase to the 1.15 handle. The pair is now testing support at the 50% Fibonacci scale, and next major support is at the 1.27 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The market is likely to remain choppy and with poor economic numbers from the US, AUD is likely to gain a bit of momentum.
A series of U.S. reports could move gold prices on Friday. Weak numbers will increase the odds of a pause in Fed rate hikes. This would likely put pressure on the dollar while make dollar-denominated gold a more attractive investment.
Gold markets fell initially during the trading session on Thursday but has turned around to break back above the 20 day EMA, showing signs of resiliency yet again.
The day will be highlighted by the important releases for the United States. The level of retail sales core retail sales and PPI are expected to be published at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, headline retail sales and PPI will advance by 0.1%. At the same time, the level of core retail sales will likely stay at the same level.
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Gold is regarded as immune to changes in economic activity and hence steady fund flow from investors who wish to avoid loss of funds owing to geopolitical events keeps the price steady above $1300 handle.
The early price action suggests investors are being cautious about buying strength because of concerns over valuation. If buyers continue to take control then then look for a rally to build later in the session on a sustained move over today’s intraday high at 25622. Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time and today’s higher-high, turning lower for the session will put the E-mini Dow in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.
Stock markets in America continue to grind, as we see plenty of reasons to think we are going to go in both directions. At this point, the buyers have certainly taken over in general, so I like the idea of buying, but obviously you will have to pick your places.