|Day's range||1,201.40 - 1,204.60|
Goldcorp (GG) produced 571,000 ounces of gold in the second quarter, a fall of ~10.0% YoY (year-over-year). Barrick Gold (ABX) produced ~1.07 million ounces of gold in the second quarter, reflecting a fall of ~25.0% YoY. Part of Barrick Gold’s lower production was expected due to lower ore grades, recovery at the Barrick Nevada oxide mill, and scheduled maintenance shutdowns at the Barrick Nevada and Pueblo Viejo autoclaves.
Gold prices haven’t been able to catch a break even as geopolitical concerns have become more pronounced. On August 15, gold prices fell to a 19-month low of $1,173 per ounce as the US dollar continued its winning streak. The precious metal appears to have lost some of its safe-haven appeal.
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Timmons Gold, Northern Dynasty Minerals, New Gold, Sibanye Gold and Pershing Gold
Buyers are betting that increased demand will significantly dent the strong production enough to lead to smaller-than-average weekly storage injections. This will mean that the winter heating season will begin with a wider-than-expected supply gap.
The Gold has formed a descending zigzag pattern suggesting further bearish move. The POC zone where the sellers might be appears to be between 1199.25-1205. Rejection from the zone targets 1181 and 1169.70. Only below W L3, the price should resume towards 1154.
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Based on Monday’s price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term downtrending Gann angle at 2860.00.
Silver markets were slightly positive during the day on Monday, gaining 0.33% as I sat down to record this video. However, we still have a significant amount of resistance above at the $15.00 level, and I think there is a certain amount of supply at the $15.80 level. With this in mind, I think choppiness is probably expected.
Crude oil markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a recovery in a market that was once rather beat down. The US dollar rolled over, and this could of course have been part of the catalyst.
Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the day on Monday, using the $2.90 level as support. By bouncing from there, it looks as if the market is trying to find its footing, and perhaps reach towards the $2.95 level, and then possibly even reach towards the psychologically and structurally important level above there.
Gold markets rallied a bit during the day on Monday, gaining over 0.6% by the time I sat down for work. However, I see significant resistance above, and of course we will have to see how the US dollar does before putting a lot of money to work.
The British pound recovered slightly during the Monday session, reaching towards the ¥141 level. This pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite and will move with the headlines involving the United States and China. Beyond that though, we have the Brexit that is going to influence this market, so it adds another layer of concern.
What Could Drive Newmont Mining Stock in the Rest of 2018? In the second quarter, Newmont Mining (NEM) produced 1.16 million ounces, marking a 14.0% decline YoY (year-over-year). Newmont Mining (NEM) maintained its gold production guidance of 4.9 million–5.4 million ounces in 2018 and 2019.
Newmont Mining (NEM) reported its second-quarter earnings before the market opened on July 26 and held its conference call the same day. The company reported EPS of $0.26, which beat the consensus expectations by $0.02. Its revenues of $1.66 billion, however, missed expectations by 7.0%.
Along with gold, gold miner stocks (GDX) (NUGT) are also seeing a lot of selling pressure lately. Gold equities are essentially a leveraged play on gold prices and as such, they usually move in the direction of gold prices with greater intensity. On August 15, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has lost 20.0% of its value YTD, almost double the losses seen by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
The gold prices were stable during the Friday’s session traded with a slight positive momentum. With USD gaining strength, the gold market is expected to trade under pressure with a support at $1140 level. The silver market traded range bound during the Friday’s session repeatedly bouncing from the $14.60 level.
The early price action suggests that sellers are in control. If they can take out last week’s low at $2.898 with conviction then prices should slide into $2.865. The key area to watch is $2.838 to $2.833. We could see the return of buyers on the first test of this area. If it fails then look for a steep break into $2.799.
The short-squeeze is on. The CFTC data along with the liquidation in the SPDR Gold Trust market could be indications that gold is due for a turnaround due to oversold conditions. If the dollar weakens this week then look for gold to spike into at least $1205.90 to $1215.10. Don’t be surprised if short-sellers get squeezed enough to drive this market higher this week.
DAX opened uptrend on positive cues from wall street and Asian markets but Italian budget plans could put a dent in upwards movement.
It’s a simple equation driving the price action at this time – demand seems to be slowing and supply looks to be rising. Further erosion in emerging market currencies and reports of growing supply this week could trigger a fresh round of selling pressure. I don’t think the emerging market situation will right itself immediately, which means the only factor that could spike prices higher will be an unexpected supply disruption.
Risk-Off sentiment seeps into market over weekend proceedings while Brexit woes continue to pressure GBP resulting in GBPUSD pair trading downwards since trading started for the week.
Based on last week’s price action and the close at $1184.20, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1184.00.
A lack of data through the day will leave the markets focused on geo-political risk, a number of risks providing food for thought at the start of the week.
With natural gas rapidly approaching the so-called “Shoulder Season”, bearish traders are counting on a big drop in demand and a steady-to-higher rise in production. In a perfect situation, this scenario should lead to lower prices over the near-term. In order for a bearish scenario to develop, temperatures are going to have to remain at average or below average levels and production has to remain over 80 Bcf/d.
Gold futures finished lower last week after spiking to its lowest level since the week-ending December 23, 2016. The catalyst behind the selling pressure was a stronger U.S. Dollar which surged to its highest level since the week-ending May 19, 2017. The rally in the dollar was fueled by a sell-off in emerging market currencies which was triggered by a collapse in the Turkish Lira.