|Day's range||1,226.20 - 1,234.10|
Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main bottom at 1.1432. Holding above 1.1432 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this can generate enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the resistance cluster at 1.1498 to 1.1502.
The primary market driver today is expected to be the U.S. Dollar. Rising Treasury yields and a rapidly falling Euro is helping to boost the dollar. This is helping to limit foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold.
The Euro fell below the 1.15 level during the session on Thursday, as we continue to test this general area of the chart, as there seems to be a lot of support extending down to the 1.1450 level. It is because of this that it looks like we are trying to build up the confidence to finally go higher.
The Australian dollar initially took off on Thursday, reaching the top of the recent consolidation area, but then turned right back around the show signs of weakness as the Americans stepped on board. It looks as if we are simply going to continue to consolidate in the short term.
Gold prices moved higher on Thursday as US yields whipsawed initially moving higher following a stronger than expected jobless claims report. With claims close to a 59-year low, wages should begin to move higher which is why the Fed in its meeting minutes said that it was likely to move to restrictive monetary policy. With short-term policy still somewhat accommodative, its possible that short term rates rise to 3%, which is close where the 2-year yield is currently pricing. This could buoy the dollar and in turn put downward pressure on gold prices. Despite this scenario, yields moved lower, paving the way for higher gold prices.
The fairly muted response in the British Pound to the disappointing retail sales data for September reaffirms once again that Brexit headlines take precedence over domestic economic fundamentals for currency volatility.
According to Thomson Reuters, of the 19 analysts covering Newmont Mining (NEM), 58.0% recommended a “buy,” 37.0% recommended a “hold,” and 5.0% recommended a “sell.” Its target price implies an upside of 38.0% based on its current market price of $30.10. Analysts’ ratings for NEM stock haven’t changed much in the last few months.
Oil prices are under pressure on Thursday because of the jump in inventories, however, losses are being limited by rumors the United States may be pressured to go ahead with sanctions on Saudi Arabia. This could push prices higher if the Saudi’s decide to retaliate the move with a supply cut.
DAX futures trading in international market was trading positive ahead of Asian market hours supporting positive price action in DAX index.
The Aussie dollar has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, pulling back rather significantly, but we can already start to see buyers jump into this market. I think the market is trying to go to the next major round number, just above at the 0.72 handle.
Rare element metals have become a vital part of U.S. national security this year, with one element in particular making investors extremely excited
Natural gas prices surged nearly 3% on Wednesday ahead of Thursday inventory report from the Department of Energy. Inventory levels are below the 5-year average range and the colder than normal weather is putting upward pressure on prices. Inventories are expected to draw by 85 Bcf according to Estimize. There is currently no tropical activity in the Atlantic or the Caribbean according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.
Gold prices edged lower and continued to trade sideways forming a bull flag pattern that is a pause that refreshes. The dollar gained traction against the Euro and the Pound despite softer than expected housing starts numbers. The weaker than expected US data was countered by softer inflation data in the UK and EU.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at $1235.80 and the 50% level at $1222.70.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $70.62.
Analysts’ Views: Is It Time to Look at Gold Miners? Of the 21 analysts covering Barrick Gold (ABX), only 14.0% recommend a “buy” for the stock, the lowest percentage of “buy” recommendations among the senior miner stocks (GDX). The decline in analysts’ optimism is mainly due to consistent issues at some of its mines.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 7344.75. Taking out 7318.25 with conviction will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. The daily chart is also wide open to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 7163.75. So be prepared for an acceleration to the downside.
This year started on a lukewarm note for gold and gold miners, and things started worsening after April. Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade war tensions, the emerging market (EEM) currency crisis, and other geopolitical concerns.
Stocks in Asia were broadly higher today after upbeat U.S. corporate earnings and encouraging economic data elevated Wall Street overnight.
Gold improved on Tuesday, but the market posted an inside move, which typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders said the gains were related to short-covering. New longs appeared to be scarce since the rally in the equity markets forced them to re-evaluate their reasons for being long.
The market could witness significant buying interest around the 1.31 and 1.30 level, all which are strong support points. The 0.71 and 0.70 levels underneath are the strong support points and the market is likely to hold on the levels. The pair retraced from the 61.8% of the Fibonacci level at 111.50 level, an area which has been important in the past.
A semblance of stability is returning to financial markets as investors sweep aside trade disputes and global growth fears to focus on the US earnings season.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1222.70.