OPEC cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast, citing China

STORY: OPEC on Monday (August 12) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024.

Marking the group’s first reduction to the 2024 forecast since it was made over a year ago.

That’s following weaker-than-expected numbers for the first half of the year.

And softer expectations for oil demand growth in China, specifically.

Alongside this, OPEC also trimmed its expectations for next year.

The group of leading oil producers in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by around 2.1 million barrels per day.

That’s down from growth of 2.25 million barrels per day expected last month.

The report said that despite a slow start to the summer driving season, transport fuel demand is expected to remain solid.

There’s a wider than usual split between forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024.

That’s due to differences over China and more broadly over the pace of the world's transition to cleaner fuels.

The reduction still leaves OPEC at the top end of industry estimates.

In the report, OPEC also cut next year's demand growth estimate to 1.78 million barrels per day from a previously expected 1.85 million.

OPEC+, which includes OPEC allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market.

The group agreed in June to gradually phase out the production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from October.

The International Energy Agency, which represents industrialized countries, sees much lower demand growth than OPEC of 970,000 barrels per day in 2024.