Is a Beat in Store for ConocoPhillips (COP) in Q4 Earnings?
ConocoPhillips COP is set to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 2, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, the upstream energy company’s adjusted earnings per share of $3.60 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.41, aided by higher oil-equivalent production volumes and realized commodity prices.
ConocoPhillips beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 3.3%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.
ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise
ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.72 has witnessed one upward revision and six downward movements in the past 30 days. This suggests an improvement of 19.8% from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s revenues for the December quarter is pegged at $17.5 billion, implying a year-over-year increase of 9.7%.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for ConocoPhillips this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. As you can see, that is the case here.
Earnings ESP: ConocoPhillips has an Earnings ESP of +0.57%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: COP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors to Note
Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the average West Texas Intermediate crude prices in October, November and December were recorded at $87.55 per barrel, $84.37 per barrel and $76.44 per barrel, respectively. In comparison, in the year-ago respective months, average oil prices were reported at $81.48 per barrel, $79.15 per barrel and $71.71 per barrel, per the EIA’s data.
Higher oil prices favored exploration and production activities, and convinced more explorers and producers to return to oil patches. The pricing scenario of natural gas was also healthy, depicting that the upstream business was lucrative in the fourth quarter.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips’ daily crude oil production is pegged at 917 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), suggesting an improvement from 836 MBbl/d reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric is 944.7 MBbl/d, implying a year-over-year rise.
Hence, higher commodity prices and crude production are likely to have aided ConocoPhillips’ earnings in the fourth quarter.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:
Enterprise Products Partners EPD has an Earnings ESP of +1.95% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Enterprise is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s earnings is pegged at 60 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 15.4% from the prior-year reported figure.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Marathon Petroleum is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Jan 31. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings is pegged at $5.54 per share, suggesting a significant increase from the prior-year reported figure.
PBF Energy PBF has an Earnings ESP of +9.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.
PBF Energy is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s earnings is pegged at $4.49 per share, suggesting a massive increase from the prior-year reported figure.
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