New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.
Look for the return of volatility at 0200 GMT when China releases its economic reports. GDP is expected to come in at 6.7%, down slightly from 6.8%. Fixed Asset Investment is expected to come in at 6.0%, down slightly from 6.1%. Industrial Production is estimated to have risen 6.5%, down from 6.8%. Retail
This week’s price action is likely to be tied to risk appetite, trade tensions, domestic data and Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress.
We could see a repeat of Wednesday’s trade if today’s U.S. consumer inflation report comes in strong enough to support the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in September and December. A steady to stronger-than-expected report should drive Treasury yields higher, which should make the U.S. Dollar a
Inability to sustain the break of nearly two-month old descending trend-line seems dragging EURUSD towards 1.1680 re-test, clearing which the 1.1600 and the 1.1540 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.1730-40 region, comprising 50-day SMA & aforementioned TL, could
We start with a nice, clean, technical setup on the CADCHF. The price bounced from the 38,2% Fibonacci and broke the lower line of the bullish correction. That would be a great sell only if not the BoC later today. Movements after the decision and statement are impossible to predict, which makes this
Looking at the broader picture, the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand is driving the price action. Recently, the RBNZ suggested it may not raise interest rates until late 2019 or early 2020. Additionally, it did not eliminate
Correction on the Gold was not the deepest on the record. Price managed to use the weekly hammer for an upswing but it was not spectacular. Yesterday’s candle is a shooting star and price came back below the 1260 USD/oz support and broke the lower line of the wedge. Those signs are bearish.
investors seem to be enjoying the relative calm over the U.S.-China trade dispute. Although the U.S. followed through on its threat to impose a tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, the price action indicates the news had been fully-priced into the market. Therefore, we’re not likely to
Last week was a U.S. holiday-shortened week, meaning the major banks likely took the week off. Why is this important? Because this allowed a few of the smaller players to push around the Forex pairs.
As it stands, we can accept a few short-covering rallies in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD at this time. However, the professionals stand ready to limit gains because the fundamentals are currently stacked against the Aussie and Kiwi.
“Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
Based on the early price action on Monday, it looks like the direction of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD will be determined by investor demand for risk. The Forex pairs are likely to remain under pressure all session as long as global equity markets continue to fall.
In Australia, the RBA will hold another monetary policy meeting early Wednesday. It is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged. It could also present a dovish outlook for the economy while saying it doesn’t foresee any interest rate hike in the near future. Futures market investors
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Traders are saying they knew that rates would stay the same, but they were surprised by the grim tone of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr’s comments. Based on his comments, traders are now saying that
With an upward slanting trend-channel portraying the GBPAUD’s strength, the pair is likely to maintain its gradual advances in direction to the 1.8000 round-figure, with 1.7960 being immediate resistance to watch. Should prices rally beyond 1.8000, the 1.8015, the 1.8085-90 horizontal-barrier and the
The long-term picture is bearish for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars because of the divergence in monetary policies between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and dovish RBA and RBNZ. The NZD/USD is plunging early Wednesday, hitting its lowest level of 2018 after a report on business confidence
Asian stock markets are posting mixed results on Wednesday amid lingering concerns over deteriorating trade relations between the U.S. and China. Investors are also reacting to a strong surge in crude oil prices. Gold continues to be shunned by the hedge funds, who are aggressively moving money into
Should the pair drop beneath the 1.1640, the 1.1590 and the 1.1510-1.1500 are crucial levels for traders to watch as break of which can drag prices to 61.8% FE level of 1.1415. Given the pair’s ability to surpass the 1.1845 barrier, chances of its rally to 1.1910 & 1.1940 can’t be denied. In addition
Short-term, the Aussie and Kiwi are being underpinned by falling U.S. Treasury yields. At the same time, lower demand for risky assets and the threat of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, are limiting the upside movement. This suggests a rangebound trade until one side gives a little
We’re expecting continued pressure on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD today as long as crude oil prices remain lower and concerns over US-China trade relations continue to simmer. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump plans to bar many Chinese companies from investing in U.S. tech and to
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD could see a bounce over the short-run if buyers continue to react to a rise in crude oil prices. However, the long-term outlook is still bearish because of expectations of rising U.S. interest rates.
The biggest influences on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD today will be any fresh tariff threats from the U.S. or China, U.S. economic data and the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. Keep an eye on the Treasury yields. If they continue to fall then the Aussie and Kiwi will strengthen.
GBPUSD’s recent U-turn, mainly due to three MPC members voting in favor of a rate-change, seems fueling the pair towards 1.3230-40 resistance-zone and then to the 1.3310 barrier. However, six-week long descending trend-line, at 1.3410 now, could restrict the pair’s further upside, failing
According to the New Zealand government, economic growth in the first quarter eased slightly, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding 0.5% – in line with market expectations.