Yahoo Finance Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMT) Just Reported Second-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMT) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The results overall were credible, with revenues of US$1.1b beating expectations by 16%. Statutory losses were US$0.48 per share, 13% below what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Calumet
Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering Calumet provided consensus estimates of US$4.15b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 2.7% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 416% to US$1.71 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$3.99b and US$1.43 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Calumet even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$20.30, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Calumet analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.2% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Calumet is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Calumet. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Calumet analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Calumet has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
