Estimating The Fair Value Of VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for VeriSign is US$182 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of US$180 suggests VeriSign is potentially trading close to its fair value

• Analyst price target for VRSN is US$205, which is 13% above our fair value estimate

Does the June share price for VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for VeriSign

Is VeriSign Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$907.0m	US$967.0m	US$988.0m	US$1.01b	US$1.03b	US$1.05b	US$1.08b	US$1.10b	US$1.13b	US$1.16b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 2.10%	Est @ 2.18%	Est @ 2.24%	Est @ 2.28%	Est @ 2.31%	Est @ 2.33%	Est @ 2.35%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5%	US$843	US$836	US$794	US$754	US$717	US$681	US$648	US$617	US$587	US$558

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$7.0b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.2b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.4%) = US$23b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$23b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)¹⁰= US$11b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$18b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$180, the company appears about fair value at a 1.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at VeriSign as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.121. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for VeriSign

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

• No major weaknesses identified for VRSN.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For VeriSign, we've compiled three pertinent elements you should look at:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with VeriSign (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for VRSN's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com