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Are Investors Undervaluing Fielmann Group AG (ETR:FIE) By 34%?

Key Insights

  • Fielmann Group's estimated fair value is €63.16 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

  • Fielmann Group's €41.60 share price signals that it might be 34% undervalued

  • Analyst price target for FIE is €51.36 which is 19% below our fair value estimate

Does the April share price for Fielmann Group AG (ETR:FIE) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Check out our latest analysis for Fielmann Group

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF (€, Millions)

€232.5m

€260.0m

€228.0m

€264.0m

€269.1m

€273.3m

€276.7m

€279.5m

€282.0m

€284.2m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x4

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ 1.95%

Est @ 1.53%

Est @ 1.24%

Est @ 1.04%

Est @ 0.89%

Est @ 0.79%

Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.6%

€220

€233

€194

€213

€205

€198

€189

€181

€173

€166

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €2.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €284m× (1 + 0.6%) ÷ (5.6%– 0.6%) = €5.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €5.7b÷ ( 1 + 5.6%)10= €3.3b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €5.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €41.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fielmann Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.086. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fielmann Group

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.

Opportunity

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the German market.

  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Fielmann Group, we've put together three relevant elements you should explore:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Fielmann Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

  2. Future Earnings: How does FIE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.