Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX:FLT), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the ASX gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine Flight Centre Travel Group’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
Is Flight Centre Travel Group Still Cheap?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 19% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Flight Centre Travel Group today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth A$22.22, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Flight Centre Travel Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Flight Centre Travel Group?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. In Flight Centre Travel Group's case, its revenues over the next couple of years are expected to double, indicating an incredibly optimistic future ahead. If expense does not increase by the same rate, or higher, this top line growth should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in FLT’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FLT, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Flight Centre Travel Group at this point in time. For example - Flight Centre Travel Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you are no longer interested in Flight Centre Travel Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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