Hibbett, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIBB) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 12% is also fairly reasonable.
Although its price has surged higher, Hibbett's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.4x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for Hibbett as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
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Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
Hibbett's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.6%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 179% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.9% as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10%.
With this information, we are not surprised that Hibbett is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
Hibbett's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.