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Pop quiz: Which central bank has probably just finished its most aggressive series of interest-rate increases in decades? In the last 18 months, it has raised interest rates from close to zero to more than 5%.
While talks between both political parties continue over the lifting of the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, any progress seems to be hard won and there are few signs of a deal being reached anytime soon. There’s now just over a week before the early-June deadline that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said is when it’s “highly likely” that her department will run out of sufficient cash to function as normal.
Investing.com -- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked interest rates as expected on Wednesday and said that rates will remain higher for longer given stubborn inflation, although local economic growth is likely to suffer as a result of monetary tightening.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a hot topic in the world of trading for decades. Will AI ever be able to outperform humans in making potentially profitable decisions?
Carry trade and arbitrage strategies focus on exploiting specific market conditions and inefficiencies, and if used well can be complimentary to both technical and fundamental analysis.
The yen sank against major peers on Monday after U.S. payrolls data bolstered the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, highlighting a growing disparity with Japan where the central bank continues to pin the benchmark yield near zero. The yen slipped 0.4% against the U.S. dollar to 132.70, extending its decline from Friday, when data showed the U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a brisk pace in March. The dollar strengthened against the yen because of the continued strong growth in the U.S. labour market despite inflation and sharp interest rate rises, Mizuho analysts Masafumi Yamamoto and Masayoshi Mihara wrote in a client note.
The yen sank against major peers on Monday after U.S. payrolls data bolstered the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, highlighting a growing disparity with Japan where the central bank continues to pin the benchmark yield near zero. The yen slipped 0.3% against the U.S. dollar to 132.47, extending a similar-sized decline from Friday, when data showed the U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a brisk pace in March. The dollar strengthened against the yen because of the continued strong growth in the U.S. labour market despite inflation and sharp interest rate rises, Mizuho analysts Masafumi Yamamoto and Masayoshi Mihara wrote in a client note.
The U.S. dollar languished near two-month lows in early European trade Monday as weak economic data support the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be near the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The dollar started last month on a firm footing on expectations sticky inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to take interest rates higher than previously thought. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester indicated on Tuesday that the central bank likely has more rate rises ahead of it, seeing the fed funds rate moving above 5%.
By Ambar Warrick
The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Friday ahead of the key monthly jobs report, and the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan retained its ultra-dovish stance. This was an economic release that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell specifically mentioned earlier this week as influencing the thinking of the central bank policymakers as far as further interest rate hikes are concerned. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 205,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from the blockbuster 517,000 added in January, but the possibility of another upside surprise exists, especially after Powell’s hawkish tone in his semi-annual testimony to Congress.
The dollar has been supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields, helping the greenback rebound after logging sharp overnight losses. This followed Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari suggesting that a 50-basis-point rate hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting later this month was still a possibility. "I think my colleagues agree with me that the risk of under-tightening is greater than the risk of overtightening," Kashkari said at a meeting Wednesday, adding that rates may ultimately need to go higher than the 5.4% level he had thought in December would be adequate.
The US dollar retreated in Europe Wednesday while the Chinese yuan rose sharply after economic data pointed to a recovery in the second largest economy in the world, sparking risk-on sentiment. Data released earlier Wednesday showed that China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, confirming that the economic recovery in China gained momentum over the past month after the country relaxed most of its anti-COVID measures in January. China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose 52.6 in February, a climb from January's figure of 50.1.
The U.S. dollar traded higher in Europe Tuesday, on track to post strong gains this month, while sterling gave back some of its gains from the previous session after the U.K. signed a new post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union. The dollar has been on a tear this month as stronger-than-expected economic data, including hot inflation numbers, pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates further and keeping them high for longer than previously envisaged. "Understandably, investors are now taking the Federal Reserve hawks more seriously and have priced three more 25bp rate hikes from the Fed in March, May, and June."
At 02:55 ET (07:55 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 104.588, not far removed from the near seven-week high of 104.78 it hit during the previous session. Fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised lower during the previous session, but the economic data released this year has painted a stronger picture of the U.S. economy. A drop in weekly jobless claims showed that the job market remained hot, following on from the extremely strong official jobs report at the start of the month, while retail sales were robust and business activity rebounded to an eight-month high in February.
The U.S. dollar slipped lower in early European trade Thursday, but remained near its recent highs after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting pointed to more rate hikes ahead. The minutes from the Fed's February meeting stated that most of the officials supported the quarter-point increase because a slower pace "would better allow them to assess the economy's progress" toward reducing inflation to their 2% target. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed still needs a "sharp" tightening of monetary policy to tame inflation, adding he expects short-term interest rates to peak between 5.25-5.50%, over half a percent above their current level.
By Ambar Warrick
The index is maintaining the positive tone seen after Friday’s strong employment report, which recorded a surge in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in January. This suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve has enough headroom within the labor market to keep raising interest rates, which benefits the dollar directly as well as potentially weighing on global growth, to the benefit of the safe haven greenback.
It’s all happening for investors and traders this week, with a plethora of significant news releases out around the world.
By Ambar Warrick