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November jobs report, earnings: What to watch this week

Jobs data is the big theme of the week. On Tuesday, the October JOLTS report spotlights job openings. Wednesday brings the ADP private payrolls report while Thursday has the latest jobless claims tally. Friday brings November's official jobs report, which is expected to show an increase of 200,000 jobs. There are also a number of companies releasing their quarterly reports this week including Box (BOX), Nio (NIO), GameStop (GME), Lululemon (LULU), and Dollar General (DG).

Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer breaks down the details of what to expect this week.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Video transcript

SEANA SMITH: Well, we have a busy week ahead of-- with US data and company results. Our very own Josh Schafer is here to break it all down with what we should focus on. Guessing it's the jobs report.

JOSH SCHAFER: Jobs week in America. Come on. Brad looks excited. It's Monday. We got to get excited for the jobs report that's on Friday, right? Because there's, you know, little tidbits--

SEANA SMITH: Five days to talk about it.

JOSH SCHAFER: Yeah, little tidbits from here to then. But realistically, it's gonna to be that jobs report on Friday that's gonna be probably your big market mover for the week. But a couple of other data points to hit on and highlight here.

You have that jobs report tomorrow with job openings, ADP report on Wednesday, and then also initial jobless claims, which we've really been looking at, the continuing claims recently too. Those come out on Thursdays. And continuing claims have continued to pick up. So you're seeing the same people continuing to file.

But again, Friday, that jobs report is your key data of the week. I wanna hit some of the estimates here that we're gonna be looking for. This was as of about a day ago on Bloomberg. But you're expecting 200,000 jobs, 3.9% employment rate, which would be flat, average hourly wage growth at 4% notably down a little bit from last month.

And really what that picture paints there is what the market wants, a little bit of a Goldilocks print, a little bit of a not too hot, not too cold. Jobs are still being added so people can buy things but not too many jobs and people making too much money where we might be able to, you know, keep inflation up.

And the other thing, though, that I think I'm gonna watch this week, one other thing I wanna hit on here guys, is just the overall rally we've been seeing, right? We saw the Russell 2000 really kind of take off throughout the last month, and then specifically on Friday rising almost 2% on Friday alone.

And I wanted to bring up an interesting chart here from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on a look at earnings revisions and why maybe it might be too soon to be buying that Russell 2000 or small caps.

So you see here earnings revisions breath small caps significantly lagging the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-- yeah, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, essentially saying, well, if earnings projections and earnings revisions are why we buy stocks because we're looking for those profits to come later in the future, we're not really seeing that yet with the Russell 2000. So maybe the rally shouldn't be happening yet.

One other spin on that, look at the NASDAQ 100, Brad, sort of leading that chart that we were just discussing, right?

BRAD SMITH: I look at it every day.

JOSH SCHAFER: And that's the Mag Seven. Mag Seven's done pretty good if you invest in some of these indexes, right? So you could sort of read that chart two ways of maybe we won't have a lot of breadth. But if the Mag Seven is gonna keep leading us higher, it's not a bad time to be in the index.

SEANA SMITH: Outperformance of the large caps.

BRAD SMITH: All right, Mag Seven to take your breath away. How about that?